South Alabama vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsUSM
- Q4 1:40USADiego Guajardo 34 Yd Field Goal 32–21
- Q4 5:42USMNaricuss Driver 1 Yd Run (Naricuss Driver Pass to Luke Baker for Two-Point Conversion)29–21
- Q4 10:20USAKawaan Baker 52 Yd pass from Chance Lovertich (Diego Guajardo PAT failed)29–13
- Q3 2:15USADiego Guajardo 21 Yd Field Goal 23–13
- Q3 6:56USMBriggs Bourgeois 28 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q3 10:23USAJalen Tolbert 31 Yd pass from Desmond Trotter (Diego Guajardo Kick)20–10
- Q2 0:14USMBriggs Bourgeois 24 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 10:27USMDon Ragsdale 2 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)13–7
- Q1 1:30USATerrion Avery 2 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)13–0
- Q1 13:57USAJalen Tolbert 73 Yd pass from Desmond Trotter (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.7 vs 3rd & 4.2
- PassDesmond Trotter 16/27, 299 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushCarlos Davis 15 CAR, 85 YDS
- RecJalen Tolbert 6 REC, 169 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJack Abraham 22/32, 314 YDS
- RushFrank Gore Jr. 12 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecTim Jones 6 REC, 139 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSA up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:23USA +26%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 31 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
- Q1 1:30USA +23%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
- Q2 10:27USM +20%
Don Ragsdale run for 2 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
- Q4 3:31USA +17%
Trotter, Desmond pass incomplete to Tolbert, Jalen, PENALTY SOUMISS offside (Kitchen, Eriq) 5 yards to the SOUMISS28, NO PLAY
- Q1 13:57USA +13%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 73 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) Diego Guajardo kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback (Two-Point Conversi…
- Q4 5:42USM +13%
Naricuss Driver run for 1 yd for a TD (Naricuss Driver pass to Luke Baker for Two-Point Conversion)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. Southern Miss?
South Alabama 32, Southern Miss 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USA | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 526 | Total yards | 409 |
| 363 | Passing yards | 314 |
| 163 | Rushing yards | 95 |
| 23 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/30 | Comp/Att | 22/32 |
| 12.1 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-38 | Penalties | 7-49 |
| 29:08 | Possession | 30:52 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:17 USM punt on 4th & 10 at USA 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.00 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:40USADiego Guajardo 34 Yd Field Goal 32–21
- Q4 5:42USMNaricuss Driver 1 Yd Run (Naricuss Driver Pass to Luke Baker for Two-Point Conversion)29–21
- Q4 10:20USAKawaan Baker 52 Yd pass from Chance Lovertich (Diego Guajardo PAT failed)29–13
- Q3 2:15USADiego Guajardo 21 Yd Field Goal 23–13
- Q3 6:56USMBriggs Bourgeois 28 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q3 10:23USAJalen Tolbert 31 Yd pass from Desmond Trotter (Diego Guajardo Kick)20–10
- Q2 0:14USMBriggs Bourgeois 24 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 10:27USMDon Ragsdale 2 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)13–7
- Q1 1:30USATerrion Avery 2 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)13–0
- Q1 13:57USAJalen Tolbert 73 Yd pass from Desmond Trotter (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1451, USA Elo 1227 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM -11.4 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#34 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #27 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| USA | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.1 (#97) | CORE overall | -14.2 (#106) |
| -8 / +3 | offense / defense | -2 / +12 |
| 1.83 | points / drive | 2.22 |
| 2.34 | allowed / drive | 3.17 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →