Utah vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTAHTeam statsORE
- Q4 2:10OREKani Benoit 21 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)20–41
- Q4 9:57UTAHSiaosi Wilson 29 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Matt Gay Kick)20–34
- Q4 12:24ORETony Brooks-James 23 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)13–34
- Q3 3:27OREJacob Breeland 22 Yd pass from Charles Nelson (Aidan Schneider Kick)13–27
- Q3 9:14OREAidan Schneider 38 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q3 11:36UTAHDarrin Paulo 1 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Matt Gay Kick)13–17
- Q2 3:42UTAHMatt Gay 34 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 5:54OREUgochukwu Amadi 47 Yd Fumble Return (Aidan Schneider Kick)3–17
- Q2 8:40OREAidan Schneider 23 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 14:50UTAHMatt Gay 23 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:55ORECam McCormick 5 Yd pass from Braxton Burmeister (Aidan Schneider Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UTAH lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassTyler Huntley 25/43, 293 YDS, 2 TD
- RushZack Moss 10 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecDarren Carrington 9 REC, 130 YDS
- PassBraxton Burmeister 9/12, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRoyce Freeman 20 CAR, 139 YDS
- RecJake Breeland 1 REC, 22 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:27ORE +25%
Charles Nelson pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 22 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
- Q3 11:36UTAH +21%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darrin Paulo for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK)
- Q2 5:54ORE +19%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darren Carrington II for a loss of 6 yards for a TD Darren Carrington II fumbled, forced by Ugochukwu Amadi, recovered by Oregn Ugochukw…
- Q1 9:55ORE +19%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Cam McCormick for 5 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
- Q3 9:14ORE +12%
Aidan Schneider 38 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 8:40ORE +11%
Aidan Schneider 23 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah vs. Oregon?
Utah 20, Oregon 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTAH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTAH | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 416 |
| 293 | Passing yards | 69 |
| 91 | Rushing yards | 347 |
| 20 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/43 | Comp/Att | 10/13 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-49 | Penalties | 8-60 |
| 31:22 | Possession | 28:38 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:30 UTAH punt on 4th & 2 at UTAH 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:10OREKani Benoit 21 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)20–41
- Q4 9:57UTAHSiaosi Wilson 29 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Matt Gay Kick)20–34
- Q4 12:24ORETony Brooks-James 23 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)13–34
- Q3 3:27OREJacob Breeland 22 Yd pass from Charles Nelson (Aidan Schneider Kick)13–27
- Q3 9:14OREAidan Schneider 38 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q3 11:36UTAHDarrin Paulo 1 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Matt Gay Kick)13–17
- Q2 3:42UTAHMatt Gay 34 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 5:54OREUgochukwu Amadi 47 Yd Fumble Return (Aidan Schneider Kick)3–17
- Q2 8:40OREAidan Schneider 23 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 14:50UTAHMatt Gay 23 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:55ORECam McCormick 5 Yd pass from Braxton Burmeister (Aidan Schneider Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 1459, UTAH Elo 1608 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORE +3.6 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#52 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #102 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Oregon leads 25–12 · Oregon has won 2 straight · 49% have been one-possession games
| UTAH | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.8 (#48) | CORE overall | +12.4 (#24) |
| +0 / -5 | offense / defense | +4 / -8 |
| 2.24 | points / drive | 2.19 |
| 1.85 | allowed / drive | 2.12 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →