Toledo vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOLTeam statsBGSU
- Q4 8:38TOLAlonzo Russell 15 Yd pass from Phillip Ely (Jameson Vest Kick)44–28
- Q3 8:03BGSUGehrig Dieter 11 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)37–28
- Q3 11:10TOLPhillip Ely 8 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)37–21
- Q3 12:25BGSUGehrig Dieter 3 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)30–21
- Q2 1:34BGSUGehrig Dieter 5 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)30–14
- Q2 5:58TOLKareem Hunt 11 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)30–7
- Q2 8:33TOLJameson Vest 35 Yd Field Goal 23–7
- Q2 12:20BGSUFred Coppet 5 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)20–7
- Q2 14:14TOLJameson Vest 22 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q1 3:10TOLJameson Vest 20 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 10:02TOLTerry Swanson 23 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:55TOLKareem Hunt 5 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassPhillip Ely 16/24, 208 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKareem Hunt 29 CAR, 153 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAlonzo Russell 3 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMatt Quinn Johnson 28/46, 274 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushTravis Calton Greene 17 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecGehrig Dieter 13 REC, 103 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:03BGSU +20%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
- Q1 10:02TOL +18%
Terry Swanson 23 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)
- Q3 12:25BGSU +18%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
- Q1 12:55TOL +18%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
- Q3 11:10TOL +16%
Phillip Ely run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
- Q2 12:20BGSU +14%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Bowling Green?
Toledo 44, Bowling Green 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TOL | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 406 | Total yards | 368 |
| 208 | Passing yards | 274 |
| 198 | Rushing yards | 94 |
| 20 | First downs | 28 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 16/24 | Comp/Att | 28/46 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 8-84 | Penalties | 8-85 |
| 34:31 | Possession | 25:29 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:10 TOL field goal on 4th & 2 at BGSU 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:38TOLAlonzo Russell 15 Yd pass from Phillip Ely (Jameson Vest Kick)44–28
- Q3 8:03BGSUGehrig Dieter 11 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)37–28
- Q3 11:10TOLPhillip Ely 8 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)37–21
- Q3 12:25BGSUGehrig Dieter 3 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)30–21
- Q2 1:34BGSUGehrig Dieter 5 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)30–14
- Q2 5:58TOLKareem Hunt 11 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)30–7
- Q2 8:33TOLJameson Vest 35 Yd Field Goal 23–7
- Q2 12:20BGSUFred Coppet 5 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)20–7
- Q2 14:14TOLJameson Vest 22 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q1 3:10TOLJameson Vest 20 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 10:02TOLTerry Swanson 23 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:55TOLKareem Hunt 5 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BGSU Elo 1757, TOL Elo 1662 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BGSU -6.2 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#35 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #45 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Toledo leads 33–30–1 · Bowling Green has won 2 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| TOL | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.7 (#20) | CORE overall | +16.6 (#18) |
| +6 / -9 | offense / defense | +17 / +0 |
| 2.74 | points / drive | 3.25 |
| 1.45 | allowed / drive | 2.23 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →