Texas vs. Iowa State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEXTeam statsISU
- Q4 2:10ISUJoshua Thomas 1 Yd Run (Cole Netten Kick)0–24
- Q3 5:11ISUDondre Daley 19 Yd pass from Joel Lanning (Cole Netten Kick)0–17
- Q2 0:05ISUCole Netten 28 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:38ISUMike Warren 3 Yd Run (Cole Netten Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTyrone Swoopes 6/13, 59 YDS
- RushTyrone Swoopes 10 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecDaje Johnson 6 REC, 37 YDS
- PassJoel Lanning 19/37, 188 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMike Warren 32 CAR, 157 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAllen Lazard 6 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsISU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:38ISU +19%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
- Q3 5:11ISU +14%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Dondre Daley for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
- Q2 0:05ISU +10%
Cole Netten 28 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 5:28ISU +9%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Carson Epps
- Q3 11:10ISU +6%
Holden Kramer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Daje Johnson at the Texas 11
- Q2 4:24ISU +5%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to D'Vario Montgomery
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas vs. Iowa State?
Texas 0, Iowa State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TEX, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TEX | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 204 | Total yards | 426 |
| 85 | Passing yards | 188 |
| 119 | Rushing yards | 238 |
| 11 | First downs | 28 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 15-24 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 12/22 | Comp/Att | 19/38 |
| 3.9 | Yards per pass | 4.9 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-39 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 22:35 | Possession | 37:25 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:10 ISU punt on 4th & 2 at TEX 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:10ISUJoshua Thomas 1 Yd Run (Cole Netten Kick)0–24
- Q3 5:11ISUDondre Daley 19 Yd pass from Joel Lanning (Cole Netten Kick)0–17
- Q2 0:05ISUCole Netten 28 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:38ISUMike Warren 3 Yd Run (Cole Netten Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ISU Elo 1342, TEX Elo 1516 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ISU +4.6 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#13 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #43 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Texas leads 16–5 · Texas has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| TEX | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.0 (#67) | CORE overall | -2.6 (#76) |
| -3 / -4 | offense / defense | +1 / +3 |
| 1.87 | points / drive | 1.86 |
| 2.23 | allowed / drive | 2.73 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -15 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →