Utah State vs. BYU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USUTeam statsBYU
- Q4 8:39BYUTrevor Samson 24 Yd Field Goal 35–20
- Q3 1:49USUNick Vigil 1 Yd Run (Nick Diaz Kick)35–17
- Q3 4:39BYUTrevor Samson 41 Yd Field Goal 28–17
- Q2 0:55USUHunter Sharp 72 Yd pass from Darell Garretson (Nick Diaz Kick)28–14
- Q2 4:27USUDevonte Robinson 22 Yd pass from Darell Garretson (Nick Diaz Kick)21–14
- Q2 4:40USUDarell Garretson 5 Yd Run (Nick Diaz Kick)14–14
- Q2 13:06BYUMitch Mathews 25 Yd pass from Taysom Hill (Trevor Samson Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:50USUDevonte Robinson 7 Yd pass from Darell Garretson (Nick Diaz Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:44BYUTaysom Hill 11 Yd Run (Trevor Samson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDarell Garretson 19/25, 321 YDS, 3 TD
- RushNick Vigil 16 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHunter Sharp 5 REC, 173 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChristian Stewart 10/29, 172 YDS, 3 INT
- RushJamaal Williams 16 CAR, 102 YDS
- RecJordan Leslie 4 REC, 135 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:55USU +27%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 72 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)
- Q2 4:27USU +26%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 22 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)
- Q2 4:40USU +17%
Darell Garretson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)
- Q1 0:50USU +14%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)
- Q2 13:06BYU +14%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 25 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
- Q3 1:49USU +13%
Nick Vigil run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. BYU?
Utah State 35, BYU 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BYU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USU | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 457 | Total yards | 425 |
| 321 | Passing yards | 271 |
| 136 | Rushing yards | 154 |
| 22 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/25 | Comp/Att | 18/40 |
| 12.8 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 12-105 | Penalties | 9-60 |
| 37:34 | Possession | 21:56 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:25 USU punt on 4th & 19 at BYU 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:39BYUTrevor Samson 24 Yd Field Goal 35–20
- Q3 1:49USUNick Vigil 1 Yd Run (Nick Diaz Kick)35–17
- Q3 4:39BYUTrevor Samson 41 Yd Field Goal 28–17
- Q2 0:55USUHunter Sharp 72 Yd pass from Darell Garretson (Nick Diaz Kick)28–14
- Q2 4:27USUDevonte Robinson 22 Yd pass from Darell Garretson (Nick Diaz Kick)21–14
- Q2 4:40USUDarell Garretson 5 Yd Run (Nick Diaz Kick)14–14
- Q2 13:06BYUMitch Mathews 25 Yd pass from Taysom Hill (Trevor Samson Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:50USUDevonte Robinson 7 Yd pass from Darell Garretson (Nick Diaz Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:44BYUTaysom Hill 11 Yd Run (Trevor Samson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BYU Elo 1779, USU Elo 1554 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BYU -11.4 (78% to win) — 9.6 points clear of USU's market line of -21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#10 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #4 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →BYU leads 51–37–3 · BYU has won 3 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
| USU | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | points / drive | 2.38 |
| 1.49 | allowed / drive | 1.96 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 31% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →