Tulane vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TULNTeam statsHOU
- Q4 1:04HOUDeontay Greenberry 9 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick)31–24
- Q4 3:24TULNAndrew DiRocco 25 Yd Field Goal 31–17
- Q4 9:22TULNDontrell Hilliard 1 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)28–17
- Q3 5:39TULNLeondre James 9 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick)21–17
- Q2 0:00HOUKyle Bullard 39 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 1:53HOUAdrian McDonald 0 Yd Fumble Return (Kyle Bullard Kick)14–14
- Q2 10:39TULNDontrell Hilliard 63 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:36HOUMarkeith Ambles 19 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:19TULNTeddy Veal 12 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTanner Lee 24/35, 237 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushDontrell Hilliard 25 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDontrell Hilliard 5 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGreg Ward 30/45, 336 YDS, 2 TD, 4 INT
- RushGreg Ward 18 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecDeontay Greenberry 11 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTULN up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:22TULN +39%
Dontrell Hilliard 1 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)
- Q3 5:39TULN +27%
Leondre James 9 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick)
- Q2 1:53HOU +21%
Adrian McDonald 0 Yd Fumble Return (Kyle Bullard Kick)
- Q2 10:39TULN +17%
Dontrell Hilliard 63 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick)
- Q4 13:45TULN +14%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 13 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST down
- Q4 3:24TULN +14%
Andrew DiRocco 25 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. Houston?
Tulane 31, Houston 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TULN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 361 | Total yards | 426 |
| 237 | Passing yards | 336 |
| 124 | Rushing yards | 90 |
| 22 | First downs | 25 |
| 10-16 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 24/35 | Comp/Att | 30/49 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 5-64 | Penalties | 6-51 |
| 31:22 | Possession | 28:36 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:39 TULN punt on 4th & 10 at HOU 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.00 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:04HOUDeontay Greenberry 9 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick)31–24
- Q4 3:24TULNAndrew DiRocco 25 Yd Field Goal 31–17
- Q4 9:22TULNDontrell Hilliard 1 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)28–17
- Q3 5:39TULNLeondre James 9 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick)21–17
- Q2 0:00HOUKyle Bullard 39 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 1:53HOUAdrian McDonald 0 Yd Fumble Return (Kyle Bullard Kick)14–14
- Q2 10:39TULNDontrell Hilliard 63 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:36HOUMarkeith Ambles 19 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:19TULNTeddy Veal 12 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Andrew DiRocco Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1667, TULN Elo 1243 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -19.4 (89% to win) — 2.9 points clear of HOU's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#59 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #13 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Houston leads 19–8 · 26% have been one-possession games
| TULN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.82 | points / drive | 2.18 |
| 2.05 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 29% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →