Stanford vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
STANTeam statsASU
- Q4 12:11STANSTANFORD Extra point GOOD.38–14
- Q4 12:11STANSTANFORD pass complete for a touchdown.37–14
- Q3 6:12STANSTANFORD 30 yard field goal GOOD.31–14
- Q2 3:52ASUARIZONA ST Extra point GOOD.28–14
- Q2 3:52ASUARIZONA ST pass complete for a touchdown.28–14
- Q2 9:49STANSTANFORD Extra point GOOD.28–7
- Q2 9:49STANSTANFORD rush for a touchdown.27–7
- Q2 14:51STANSTANFORD Extra point GOOD.21–7
- Q2 14:51STANSTANFORD rush for a touchdown.20–7
- Q1 7:30STANSTANFORD Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q1 7:30STANSTANFORD rush for a touchdown.13–7
- Q1 11:54ASUARIZONA ST Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 11:54ASUARIZONA ST rush for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 13:41STANSTANFORD Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 13:41STANSTANFORD rush for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
- PassKevin Hogan 12/18, 277 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTyler Gaffney 22 CAR, 133 YDS, 3 TD
- RecDevon Cajuste 2 REC, 120 YDS
- PassTaylor Kelly 17/25, 173 YDS, 1 TD
- RushD.J. Foster 8 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecD.J. Foster 4 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSTAN up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:30STAN +16%
Tyler Gaffney rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 13:41STAN +15%
Tyler Gaffney rush for 69 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:51STAN +15%
Ty Montgomery rush for 22 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 11:54ASU +13%
D.J. Foster rush for 51 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 3:52ASU +11%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 65 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 9:49STAN +9%
Tyler Gaffney rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Stanford vs. Arizona State?
Stanford 38, Arizona State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ASU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| STAN | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 517 | Total yards | 311 |
| 277 | Passing yards | 173 |
| 240 | Rushing yards | 138 |
| 18 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 12/18 | Comp/Att | 17/25 |
| 15.4 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-70 | Penalties | 5-38 |
| 33:39 | Possession | 26:21 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:01 ASU go for it on 4th & 10 at STAN 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:11STANSTANFORD Extra point GOOD.38–14
- Q4 12:11STANSTANFORD pass complete for a touchdown.37–14
- Q3 6:12STANSTANFORD 30 yard field goal GOOD.31–14
- Q2 3:52ASUARIZONA ST Extra point GOOD.28–14
- Q2 3:52ASUARIZONA ST pass complete for a touchdown.28–14
- Q2 9:49STANSTANFORD Extra point GOOD.28–7
- Q2 9:49STANSTANFORD rush for a touchdown.27–7
- Q2 14:51STANSTANFORD Extra point GOOD.21–7
- Q2 14:51STANSTANFORD rush for a touchdown.20–7
- Q1 7:30STANSTANFORD Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q1 7:30STANSTANFORD rush for a touchdown.13–7
- Q1 11:54ASUARIZONA ST Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 11:54ASUARIZONA ST rush for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 13:41STANSTANFORD Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 13:41STANSTANFORD rush for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1957, STAN Elo 1962 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU -2.2 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#37 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #83 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Arizona State leads 18–16 · 38% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →