Cincinnati vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CINTeam statsILL
- Q4 2:11ILLILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.17–45
- Q4 2:11ILLILLINOIS rush for a touchdown.17–44
- Q4 8:23ILLILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.17–38
- Q4 8:23ILLILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.17–37
- Q4 9:57ILLILLINOIS 19 yard field goal GOOD.17–31
- Q3 1:34CINCINCINNATI Extra point GOOD.17–28
- Q3 1:34CINCINCINNATI rush for a touchdown.16–28
- Q3 2:48ILLILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.10–28
- Q3 2:48ILLILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.10–27
- Q3 11:02CINCINCINNATI 37 yard field goal GOOD.10–21
- Q2 0:08CINCINCINNATI Extra point GOOD.7–21
- Q2 0:08CINCINCINNATI pass complete for a touchdown.6–21
- Q2 7:04ILLILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.0–21
- Q2 7:04ILLILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.0–20
- Q2 12:47ILLILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.0–14
- Q2 12:47ILLILLINOIS rush for a touchdown.0–13
- Q1 5:45ILLILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 5:45ILLILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.0–6
How the model called it
- PassMunchie Legaux 17/31, 237 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMunchie Legaux 11 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecAnthony McClung 6 REC, 94 YDS
- PassNathan Scheelhaase 26/37, 312 YDS, 4 TD
- RushDonovonn Young 14 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMartize Barr 5 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILL up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:48ILL +21%
Nathan Scheelhaase flag pass complete to Steve Hull for 22 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 7:04ILL +20%
Nathan Scheelhaase flag pass complete to Evan Wilson for 23 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 12:47ILL +19%
Ryan Lankford rush left for 29 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 5:45ILL +14%
Nathan Scheelhaase sideline pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 48 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 1:34CIN +14%
Ralph Abernathy rush over left guard for 13 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 9:57ILL +12%
Taylor Zalewski 19 yard field goal GOOD, CINCINNATI penalty offside declined
FAQ
What was the final score of Cincinnati vs. Illinois?
Cincinnati 17, Illinois 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CIN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CIN | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 456 | Total yards | 522 |
| 308 | Passing yards | 312 |
| 148 | Rushing yards | 210 |
| 24 | First downs | 27 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/42 | Comp/Att | 26/37 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-48 | Penalties | 5-24 |
| 23:32 | Possession | 36:28 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:57 ILL field goal on 4th & 1 at CIN 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:11ILLILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.17–45
- Q4 2:11ILLILLINOIS rush for a touchdown.17–44
- Q4 8:23ILLILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.17–38
- Q4 8:23ILLILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.17–37
- Q4 9:57ILLILLINOIS 19 yard field goal GOOD.17–31
- Q3 1:34CINCINCINNATI Extra point GOOD.17–28
- Q3 1:34CINCINCINNATI rush for a touchdown.16–28
- Q3 2:48ILLILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.10–28
- Q3 2:48ILLILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.10–27
- Q3 11:02CINCINCINNATI 37 yard field goal GOOD.10–21
- Q2 0:08CINCINCINNATI Extra point GOOD.7–21
- Q2 0:08CINCINCINNATI pass complete for a touchdown.6–21
- Q2 7:04ILLILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.0–21
- Q2 7:04ILLILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.0–20
- Q2 12:47ILLILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.0–14
- Q2 12:47ILLILLINOIS rush for a touchdown.0–13
- Q1 5:45ILLILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 5:45ILLILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ILL Elo 1286, CIN Elo 1725 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ILL +15.2 (17% to win) — 6.7 points clear of CIN's market line of +8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#8 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #33 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →