#2Nathan Scheelhaase

QB·Illinois·20131.7 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Nathan Scheelhaase is a Dual-Threat QB for Illinois. Nathan's 2013 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 451 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nathan Scheelhaase's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

287/430 Comp/Att3272 Pass yards21 Pass TD13 INT66.7% Comp %

Rushing

271 Rush yards4 Rush TD113 Carries2.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency15
Volume100
Dual-Threat63
Consistency75
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.17 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.68 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Cincinnati (SP+ 8).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouthern Illinois	W42-34	—	28/36	416	2	1	70.4	-27	0	0.67
2	vsCincinnati	W45-17	7.8	26/37	312	4	0	80.1	24	0	0.68
3	vsWashington	L24-34	20.5	9/25	156	1	1	27.4	21	1	-0.07
5	vsMiami (OH)	W50-14	-29.0	19/24	278	5	1	94.9	13	0	0.38
6	@Nebraska	L19-39	11.6	13/26	135	0	1	14.6	11	0	0.03
8	vsWisconsin	L32-56	22.4	20/27	249	0	0	55.1	18	1	0.41
9	vsMichigan State	L3-42	19.7	13/21	103	0	1	49.0	11	0	0.17
10	@Penn State	L17-24	8.9	33/52	321	1	2	58.6	35	0	0.16
11	@Indiana	L35-52	1.4	38/57	450	2	1	77.7	45	1	0.19
12	vsOhio State	L35-60	28.4	33/50	288	2	2	33.4	46	1	0.16
13	@Purdue	W20-16	-15.7	24/30	257	2	2	64.8	19	0	0.20
14	vsNorthwestern	L34-37	4.2	31/45	307	2	1	63.5	55	0	0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.0%

Passing plays

89.4%

Rushing plays

22.7%

Standard downs

53.5%

Passing downs

69.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.06
Passing downs: 0.59
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.25 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.