Buffalo vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BUFTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 0:36BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.24–49
- Q4 0:36BUFBUFFALO pass complete for a touchdown.23–49
- Q4 6:40SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.17–49
- Q4 6:40SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.17–48
- Q4 14:53BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.17–42
- Q4 14:53BUFBUFFALO pass complete for a touchdown.16–42
- Q3 8:18SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.10–42
- Q3 8:18SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.10–41
- Q3 13:28SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.10–35
- Q3 13:28SDSUSAN DIEGO ST pass complete for a touchdown.10–34
- Q2 0:38SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.10–28
- Q2 0:38SDSUSAN DIEGO ST pass complete for a touchdown.10–27
- Q2 1:06SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.10–21
- Q2 1:06SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.10–20
- Q2 4:01BUFBUFFALO 38 yard field goal GOOD.10–14
- Q2 7:51BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.7–14
- Q2 7:51BUFBUFFALO pass complete for a touchdown.6–14
- Q2 11:55SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.0–14
- Q2 11:55SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.0–13
- Q1 0:21SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 0:21SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.0–6
How the model called it
- PassJoe Licata 13/30, 196 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushBranden Oliver 28 CAR, 114 YDS
- RecAlex Neutz 3 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- PassQuinn Kaehler 15/28, 211 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAdam Muema 28 CAR, 229 YDS, 3 TD
- RecEzell Ruffin 5 REC, 75 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:06SDSU +20%
Adam Muema rush for 8 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 0:21SDSU +17%
Quinn Kaehler rush for 29 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:38SDSU +17%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Dylan Denso for 25 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 11:55SDSU +16%
Adam Muema rush for 3 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 7:51BUF +16%
Joe Licata pass complete to Branden Oliver for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 4:01BUF +9%
Patrick Clarke 38 yard field goal GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Buffalo vs. San Diego State?
Buffalo 24, San Diego State 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BUF | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 309 | Total yards | 460 |
| 196 | Passing yards | 211 |
| 113 | Rushing yards | 249 |
| 20 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 13/31 | Comp/Att | 15/29 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-54 | Penalties | 13-122 |
| 27:36 | Possession | 32:24 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:53 BUF punt on 4th & 2 at SDSU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.29 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:36BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.24–49
- Q4 0:36BUFBUFFALO pass complete for a touchdown.23–49
- Q4 6:40SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.17–49
- Q4 6:40SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.17–48
- Q4 14:53BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.17–42
- Q4 14:53BUFBUFFALO pass complete for a touchdown.16–42
- Q3 8:18SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.10–42
- Q3 8:18SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.10–41
- Q3 13:28SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.10–35
- Q3 13:28SDSUSAN DIEGO ST pass complete for a touchdown.10–34
- Q2 0:38SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.10–28
- Q2 0:38SDSUSAN DIEGO ST pass complete for a touchdown.10–27
- Q2 1:06SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.10–21
- Q2 1:06SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.10–20
- Q2 4:01BUFBUFFALO 38 yard field goal GOOD.10–14
- Q2 7:51BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.7–14
- Q2 7:51BUFBUFFALO pass complete for a touchdown.6–14
- Q2 11:55SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.0–14
- Q2 11:55SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.0–13
- Q1 0:21SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 0:21SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1383, BUF Elo 1549 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects SDSU +6.6 (34% to win) — 5.1 points clear of BUF's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#38 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #91 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →