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Week 7 of 2026, ranked by a score whose parts are all shown. No term rewards a program for being famous — if a Tuesday MAC game outranks the night game, that is the answer.

Week01234567891011121315

The five

  1. 1
    #10Alabamaat#15Tennessee
    Time TBDNeyland Stadiummodel Alabama by 0.2market +1.5
    • Projected closeness 34/35
    • Team quality 26/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    82
    score
  2. 2
    #6Ohio Stateat#4Indiana
    Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)model Indiana by 2.6market -1.5
    • Projected closeness 27/35
    • Team quality 30/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • History 3/10
    75
    score
  3. 3
    #3Notre Dameat#11BYU
    Time TBDLaVell Edwards Stadiummodel Notre Dame by 1.6market +10
    • Projected closeness 30/35
    • Team quality 26/30
    • Stakes 14/15
    • History 1/10
    71
    score
  4. 4
    #14Penn Stateat#19Michigan
    Time TBDMichigan Stadiummodel Michigan by 5.9market -6.5
    • Projected closeness 20/35
    • Team quality 26/30
    • Stakes 14/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    65
    score
  5. 5
    #25Virginiaat#16SMU
    Time TBDGerald J. Ford Stadiummodel Virginia by 6.8
    • Projected closeness 18/35
    • Team quality 23/30
    • Stakes 14/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    58
    score

The rest of the slate

  1. 6
    MemphisatTulane
    Fri, Oct 16 · 7:30 PM ETYulman Stadiummodel Memphis by 1.8
    • Projected closeness 29/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    58
    score
  2. 7
    ToledoatEastern Michigan
    Time TBDRynearson Stadiummodel Eastern Michigan by 0.0
    • Projected closeness 35/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 5/10
    57
    score
  3. 8
    TCUatBaylorRevivalry
    Time TBDMcLane Stadiummodel Baylor by 4.0
    • Projected closeness 24/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 10/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    56
    score
  4. 9
    #20Missouriat#8Ole Miss
    Time TBDVaught-Hemingway Stadiummodel Ole Miss by 12.1
    • Projected closeness 11/35
    • Team quality 25/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • Points on the board 1/10
    52
    score
  5. 10
    UNLVatAir Force
    Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ETFalcon Stadiummodel UNLV by 2.0
    • Projected closeness 29/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 5/10
    52
    score
  6. 11
    Auburnat#2GeorgiaDeep South's Oldest Rivalry
    Time TBDSanford Stadiummodel Georgia by 18.4market -16.5
    • Projected closeness 6/35
    • Team quality 25/30
    • Stakes 9/15
    • History 10/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    51
    score
  7. 12
    Florida Stateat#5MiamiMiami-Florida State
    Time TBDHard Rock Stadiummodel Miami by 17.6market -16.5
    • Projected closeness 6/35
    • Team quality 23/30
    • Stakes 9/15
    • History 10/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    49
    score
  8. 13
    Mississippi Stateat#7LSU
    Time TBDTiger Stadium (LA)model LSU by 14.2
    • Projected closeness 9/35
    • Team quality 24/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    48
    score
  9. 14
    East CarolinaatUAB
    Thu, Oct 15 · 7:30 PM ETProtective Stadiummodel UAB by 2.4
    • Projected closeness 28/35
    • Team quality 12/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    47
    score
  10. 15
    KansasatKansas StateSunflower Showdown
    Time TBDBill Snyder Family Stadiummodel Kansas State by 10.7market -7.5
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 10/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    46
    score
  11. 16
    CincinnatiatWest Virginia
    Time TBDMilan Puskar Stadiummodel Cincinnati by 2.9
    • Projected closeness 26/35
    • Team quality 12/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    46
    score
  12. 17
    New MexicoatHawai'i
    Time TBDClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complexmodel Hawai'i by 6.0
    • Projected closeness 19/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 5/10
    45
    score
  13. 18
    #17UtahatColorado
    Time TBDFolsom Fieldmodel Utah by 11.2
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 5/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    44
    score
  14. 19
    Georgia TechatVirginia Tech
    Time TBDLane Stadiummodel Virginia Tech by 6.1
    • Projected closeness 19/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    44
    score
  15. 20
    Floridaat#1Texas
    Time TBDDKR-Texas Memorial Stadiummodel Texas by 16.4
    • Projected closeness 7/35
    • Team quality 25/30
    • Stakes 9/15
    • Points on the board 2/10
    42
    score
  16. 21
    Nebraskaat#21Oregon
    Time TBDAutzen Stadiummodel Oregon by 19.9market -21.5
    • Projected closeness 5/35
    • Team quality 26/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • Points on the board 2/10
    40
    score
  17. 22
    Wake ForestatCalifornia
    Time TBDCalifornia Memorial Stadiummodel California by 4.7
    • Projected closeness 22/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    39
    score
  18. 23
    App StateatCoastal Carolina
    Fri, Oct 16 · 8:00 PM ETBrooks Stadium (SC)model App State by 2.8
    • Projected closeness 27/35
    • Team quality 5/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    39
    score
  19. 24
    WisconsinatUCLA
    Time TBDRose Bowlmodel UCLA by 7.8
    • Projected closeness 16/35
    • Team quality 14/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    39
    score
  20. 25
    TroyatLouisiana
    Time TBDCajun Fieldmodel Louisiana by 5.9
    • Projected closeness 20/35
    • Team quality 10/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    39
    score
  21. 26
    ArkansasatVanderbilt
    Time TBDFirstBank Stadiummodel Vanderbilt by 10.5
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    39
    score
  22. 27
    Fresno StateatSan Diego State
    Sat, Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ETSnapdragon Stadiummodel San Diego State by 10.7
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  23. 28
    PittsburghatBoston College
    Time TBDAlumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)model Pittsburgh by 9.4
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 14/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  24. 29
    Washington StateatOregon State
    Sat, Oct 17 · 6:00 PM ETReser Stadiummodel Washington State by 7.1
    • Projected closeness 17/35
    • Team quality 9/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 5/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  25. 30
    #23LouisvilleatSyracuse
    Time TBDJMA Wireless Domemodel Louisville by 9.4
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  26. 31
    OhioatSacramento State
    Time TBDHornet Stadiummodel Sacramento State by 4.1
    • Projected closeness 23/35
    • Team quality 6/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 5/10
    37
    score
  27. 32
    North CarolinaatDukeVictory Bell (Tobacco Road)
    Time TBDWallace Wade Stadiummodel Duke by 14.4market -4.5
    • Projected closeness 8/35
    • Team quality 14/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 9/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    37
    score
  28. 33
    TulsaatRice
    Time TBDRice Stadiummodel Tulsa by 3.4
    • Projected closeness 25/35
    • Team quality 2/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    36
    score
  29. 34
    RutgersatMaryland
    Time TBDSECU Stadiummodel Maryland by 8.1
    • Projected closeness 16/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    36
    score
  30. 35
    NevadaatNorth Dakota State
    Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ETFargodomemodel North Dakota State by 8.3
    • Projected closeness 15/35
    • Team quality 16/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 2/10
    36
    score
  31. 36
    AkronatMiami (OH)
    Time TBDYager Stadiummodel Miami (OH) by 2.8
    • Projected closeness 27/35
    • Team quality 1/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    36
    score
  32. 37
    NorthwesternatMichigan State
    Time TBDSpartan Stadiummodel Northwestern by 16.4
    • Projected closeness 7/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    35
    score
  33. 38
    WashingtonatPurdue
    Fri, Oct 16 · 8:00 PM ETRoss-Ade Stadiummodel Washington by 8.7
    • Projected closeness 15/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    35
    score
  34. 39
    NavyatUTSA
    Time TBDAlamodomemodel UTSA by 12.1
    • Projected closeness 11/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    34
    score
  35. 40
    Arizona Stateat#13Texas Tech
    Time TBDJones AT&T Stadiummodel Texas Tech by 27.8
    • Projected closeness 2/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • Points on the board 2/10
    33
    score

How the score is built

Projected closeness — 35 points
Decays exponentially in the model’s projected margin: a pick’em is the full 35, a touchdown favorite about half, three scores nothing. The largest term, because a blowout is a blowout no matter who is playing.
Team quality — 30 points
Elo percentile of both sides, with two thirds of the weight on the weaker team. A top-five side hosting a bad one is not a good game, and an average of the two would claim it was.
Stakes — 15 points
Poll position going into the week, plus a share for a conference game. Two ranked teams take most of it; the higher the pair, the more.
Rivalry history — 10 points
From the all-time series: a named trophy game, the length of the series, and whether the all-time ledger has stayed close.
Points on the board — 10 points
The projected total, from the drive-sim. A 31-28 is better television than a 10-7 and that is allowed to matter a little — but only a little, or the whole list becomes bad defenses.

There is no term for brand, television window or network. A watchability score that rewards blue bloods for existing is a popularity ranking wearing a lab coat.