Navy vs. UTSA Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Navy gets at UTSA: 2nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 75th at stuffing runs at the line. Where UTSA gets at Navy: 23rd at throwing it, against a unit 130th at defending the pass. Navy is also 16th at running it, against a unit 58th.
How
NAVYattacks
UTSA
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
NAVY#2 of 138UTSA#75 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
NAVY#16 of 138UTSA#58 of 138
HowUTSAattacksNAVY
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
UTSA#23 of 138NAVY#130 of 138 - 2
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UTSA#28 of 138NAVY#129 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
UTSA#21 of 138NAVY#111 of 138
The two teams
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 130th at defending the pass, and they are 129th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#13projected
- Offenserunning it#16projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#130projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#129projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#129projected
UTSA
UTSA throws it: Jeff Traylor's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 18th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 126th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UTSA has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#18projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#21projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#24projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#126projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTSA Elo 1525, NAVY Elo 1513 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTSA -12.1 (77% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NAVY44th97thUTSAUTSA32nd109thNAVYThrough the air
NAVY136th87thUTSAUTSA43rd133rdNAVYOn the ground
NAVY2nd133rdUTSAUTSA44th6thNAVYStaying on the field
NAVY62nd115thUTSAUTSA129th113thNAVYTaking care of it
NAVY47th9thUTSAUTSA1st129thNAVY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NAVY | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.8 (#111) | CORE overall | +4.6 (#53) |
| -3 / +9 | offense / defense | +3 / -1 |
| 2.54 | points / drive | 2.82 |
| 3.67 | allowed / drive | 2.46 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -13 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Navy vs. UTSA?
Gridpex's model favors UTSA with a 77% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Navy vs. UTSA?
The model projects UTSA by 12.1.
What time is Navy vs. UTSA and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Alamodome.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →