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Watchlist

Week 12 of 2026, ranked by a score whose parts are all shown. No term rewards a program for being famous — if a Tuesday MAC game outranks the night game, that is the answer.

Week01234567891011121315

The five

  1. 1
    VanderbiltatFlorida
    Time TBDBen Hill Griffin Stadiummodel Vanderbilt by 0.2
    • Projected closeness 34/35
    • Team quality 24/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    67
    score
  2. 2
    #10Texas A&Mat#11Oklahoma
    Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Norman, OK)model Texas A&M by 5.1market -2.5
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 27/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 1/10
    67
    score
  3. 3
    #8LSUat#18Tennessee
    Time TBDNeyland Stadiummodel LSU by 5.4market +1.5
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 25/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    66
    score
  4. 4
    #21IowaatIllinois
    Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)model Iowa by 3.0
    • Projected closeness 26/35
    • Team quality 24/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 5/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    66
    score
  5. 5
    San Diego StateatBoise State
    Sat, Nov 21 · 9:30 PM ETAlbertsons Stadiummodel San Diego State by 0.6
    • Projected closeness 33/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    59
    score

The rest of the slate

  1. 6
    ArizonaatKansas State
    Time TBDBill Snyder Family Stadiummodel Arizona by 1.7
    • Projected closeness 30/35
    • Team quality 23/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    59
    score
  2. 7
    Wake ForestatGeorgia Tech
    Time TBDBobby Dodd Stadiummodel Wake Forest by 0.7
    • Projected closeness 33/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    58
    score
  3. 8
    Pittsburghat#24Louisville
    Time TBDL&N Federal Credit Union Stadiummodel Louisville by 5.7
    • Projected closeness 20/35
    • Team quality 24/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    57
    score
  4. 9
    #2GeorgiaatSouth CarolinaSouth Carolina-Georgia
    Time TBDWilliams-Brice Stadiummodel Georgia by 10.5
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 27/30
    • Stakes 9/15
    • History 8/10
    • Points on the board 1/10
    57
    score
  5. 10
    NorthwesternatMinnesota
    Time TBDHuntington Bank Stadiummodel Northwestern by 1.6
    • Projected closeness 30/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    57
    score
  6. 11
    SyracuseatBoston CollegeSyracuse-BC
    Time TBDAlumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)model Syracuse by 0.6
    • Projected closeness 33/35
    • Team quality 6/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 9/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    55
    score
  7. 12
    North TexasatTulane
    Time TBDYulman Stadiummodel North Texas by 2.1
    • Projected closeness 28/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    54
    score
  8. 13
    NC StateatFlorida State
    Time TBDDoak Campbell Stadiummodel Florida State by 2.5
    • Projected closeness 27/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    53
    score
  9. 14
    #17SMUat#3Notre Dame
    Sat, Nov 21 · 7:30 PM ETNotre Dame Stadiummodel Notre Dame by 12.4market -17.5
    • Projected closeness 10/35
    • Team quality 27/30
    • Stakes 14/15
    • Points on the board 2/10
    53
    score
  10. 15
    MemphisatNavy
    Sat, Nov 21 · 12:00 PM ETNavy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadiummodel Memphis by 4.5
    • Projected closeness 22/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    50
    score
  11. 16
    #5Indianaat#19Washington
    Time TBDHusky Stadiummodel Indiana by 16.7
    • Projected closeness 7/35
    • Team quality 28/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • Points on the board 1/10
    50
    score
  12. 17
    ClemsonatDuke
    Fri, Nov 20 · 7:30 PM ETWallace Wade Stadiummodel Clemson by 5.3
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    50
    score
  13. 18
    #20UtahatTCU
    Time TBDAmon G. Carter Stadiummodel Utah by 8.1
    • Projected closeness 16/35
    • Team quality 23/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    49
    score
  14. 19
    Western KentuckyatLiberty
    Sat, Nov 21 · 1:00 PM ETWilliams Stadium (VA)model Liberty by 1.5
    • Projected closeness 30/35
    • Team quality 12/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    49
    score
  15. 20
    WisconsinatPurdue
    Time TBDRoss-Ade Stadiummodel Purdue by 1.7
    • Projected closeness 30/35
    • Team quality 8/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    49
    score
  16. 21
    UTSAatUAB
    Time TBDProtective Stadiummodel UTSA by 2.9
    • Projected closeness 26/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    46
    score
  17. 22
    Washington StateatTexas State
    Sat, Nov 21 · 6:00 PM ETBobcat Stadium (TX)model Texas State by 4.0
    • Projected closeness 24/35
    • Team quality 16/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    46
    score
  18. 23
    ColoradoatCincinnati
    Time TBDNippert Stadiummodel Cincinnati by 3.0
    • Projected closeness 26/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    45
    score
  19. 24
    South FloridaatFlorida Atlantic
    Time TBDFAU Stadiummodel South Florida by 2.0
    • Projected closeness 29/35
    • Team quality 9/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    44
    score
  20. 25
    Central MichiganatBuffalo
    Time TBDUB Stadiummodel Buffalo by 0.5
    • Projected closeness 33/35
    • Team quality 4/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    44
    score
  21. 26
    Missouri StateatJacksonville State
    Sat, Nov 21 · 2:00 PM ETAmFirst Stadiummodel Jacksonville State by 1.2
    • Projected closeness 31/35
    • Team quality 7/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    44
    score
  22. 27
    Old DominionatUConn
    Sat, Nov 21 · 3:30 PM ETPratt & Whitney Stadiummodel UConn by 1.6
    • Projected closeness 30/35
    • Team quality 9/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    43
    score
  23. 28
    Iowa StateatUCF
    Fri, Nov 20 · 6:00 PM ETFBC Mortgage Stadiummodel UCF by 5.7
    • Projected closeness 20/35
    • Team quality 16/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    43
    score
  24. 29
    Rutgersat#16Penn State
    Time TBDBeaver Stadiummodel Penn State by 9.5
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    42
    score
  25. 30
    UCLAatMichigan
    Time TBDMichigan Stadiummodel Michigan by 6.2
    • Projected closeness 19/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    42
    score
  26. 31
    #1Ohio StateatNebraska
    Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)model Ohio State by 17.5
    • Projected closeness 6/35
    • Team quality 24/30
    • Stakes 9/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    41
    score
  27. 32
    Arkansasat#4Texas
    Time TBDDKR-Texas Memorial Stadiummodel Texas by 21.9
    • Projected closeness 4/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Stakes 9/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    40
    score
  28. 33
    Georgia SouthernatTroy
    Time TBDVeterans Memorial Stadium (AL)model Troy by 5.0
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 10/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    37
    score
  29. 34
    Virginia Techat#7Miami
    Time TBDHard Rock Stadiummodel Miami by 20.5market -16.5
    • Projected closeness 5/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    37
    score
  30. 35
    #13Texas TechatBaylor
    Time TBDMcLane Stadiummodel Texas Tech by 25.4
    • Projected closeness 3/35
    • Team quality 20/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 5/10
    • Points on the board 1/10
    37
    score
  31. 36
    Kentuckyat#23Missouri
    Time TBDMemorial Stadiummodel Missouri by 18.4
    • Projected closeness 6/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    36
    score
  32. 37
    Middle TennesseeatSam Houston
    Sat, Nov 21 · 2:00 PM ETElliott T. Bowers Stadiummodel Sam Houston by 2.5
    • Projected closeness 27/35
    • Team quality 2/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    35
    score
  33. 38
    Miami (OH)atKent State
    Tue, Nov 17 · 7:00 PM ETDix Stadiummodel Miami (OH) by 3.6
    • Projected closeness 25/35
    • Team quality 1/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    34
    score
  34. 39
    #15BYUatKansas
    Time TBDMemorial Stadiummodel BYU by 17.9
    • Projected closeness 6/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    34
    score
  35. 40
    StanfordatCaliforniaBig Game
    Time TBDCalifornia Memorial Stadiummodel California by 12.8
    • Projected closeness 10/35
    • Team quality 7/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 10/10
    • Points on the board 5/10
    34
    score

How the score is built

Projected closeness — 35 points
Decays exponentially in the model’s projected margin: a pick’em is the full 35, a touchdown favorite about half, three scores nothing. The largest term, because a blowout is a blowout no matter who is playing.
Team quality — 30 points
Elo percentile of both sides, with two thirds of the weight on the weaker team. A top-five side hosting a bad one is not a good game, and an average of the two would claim it was.
Stakes — 15 points
Poll position going into the week, plus a share for a conference game. Two ranked teams take most of it; the higher the pair, the more.
Rivalry history — 10 points
From the all-time series: a named trophy game, the length of the series, and whether the all-time ledger has stayed close.
Points on the board — 10 points
The projected total, from the drive-sim. A 31-28 is better television than a 10-7 and that is allowed to matter a little — but only a little, or the whole list becomes bad defenses.

There is no term for brand, television window or network. A watchability score that rewards blue bloods for existing is a popularity ranking wearing a lab coat.