Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Jacksonville State gets at Kennesaw State: 55th at throwing it, against a unit 105th at defending the pass. Where Kennesaw State gets at Jacksonville State: 48th at running it, against a unit 101st at defending the run. Jacksonville State is also 63rd on first and second down, against a unit 109th.
How
JXSTattacks
KENN
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · 25% this season, 2 games
JXST+0.57#55 of 138KENN+0.36#105 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · 25% this season, 2 games
JXST50%#63 of 138KENN44%#109 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · 25% this season, 2 games
JXST44%#54 of 138KENN38%#94 of 138
HowKENNattacksJXST
- 1
Run it
running it · projected · 1 game in
KENN+0.42#48 of 138JXST+0.15#101 of 138
The two teams
Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is in year 2 under Charles Kelly. The way in is 109th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Jacksonville State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 28% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points3.00#109 of 138
Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State is in year 2 under Jerry Mack. The way in is 117th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 113th at generating havoc.
Kennesaw State has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 19% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line26.1%#117 of 138
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss10.6%#113 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down44%#109 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENN Elo 1327, JXST Elo 1426 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENN -1.7 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
JXST65th85thKENNKENN64th56thJXSTThrough the air
JXST60th55thKENNKENN64th11thJXSTOn the ground
JXST91st93rdKENNKENN53rd119thJXSTStaying on the field
JXST15th18thKENNKENN78th96thJXSTTaking care of it
JXST104th22ndKENNKENN75th46thJXST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JXST | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.42 | points / drive | 1.70 |
| 2.30 | allowed / drive | 3.00 |
| 13% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State?
Gridpex's model favors Kennesaw State with a 55% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State?
The model projects Kennesaw State by 1.7.
What time is Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State and what channel is it on?
Wed, Oct 7, 7:00 PM ET, at Fifth Third Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →