Buffalo vs. Akron Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Buffalo gets at Akron: 39th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 130th at keeping everything in front of them. Akron projects no clear way in against Buffalo.
How
BUFattacks
AKR
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 53% this season, 2 games
BUF1.37#39 of 138AKR1.58#130 of 138
The two teams
Buffalo
Buffalo is in year 3 under Pete Lembo, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 137th at running it, and they are 132nd on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Buffalo has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 27% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offenserunning it-0.11#137 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down39%#132 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve23%#132 of 138
Akron
Akron is in year 5 under Joe Moorhead, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 21st at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 130th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 123rd at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Akron has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 20% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line30.0%#21 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.58#130 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.64#123 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.07#112 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AKR Elo 929, BUF Elo 1341 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AKR -12.6 (79% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BUF130th123rdAKRAKR78th91stBUFThrough the air
BUF81st121stAKRAKR81st132ndBUFOn the ground
BUF119th61stAKRAKR44th66thBUFStaying on the field
BUF91st98thAKRAKR52nd75thBUFTaking care of it
BUF104th76thAKRAKR47th76thBUF
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBuffalo leads 13–12 · 36% have been one-possession games
| BUF | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.9 (#130) | CORE overall | -17.3 (#129) |
| -12 / +6 | offense / defense | -6 / +11 |
| 1.54 | points / drive | 1.70 |
| 2.62 | allowed / drive | 3.70 |
| 46% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Buffalo vs. Akron?
Gridpex's model favors Akron with a 79% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Buffalo vs. Akron?
The model projects Akron by 12.6.
What time is Buffalo vs. Akron and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 27, 12:00 PM ET, at InfoCision Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →