Northern Illinois vs. Arizona Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 2.9 toward 
NIU
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  ARIZ −34.5 | ARIZ −31.6 |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Arizona gets at Northern Illinois: 22nd at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 129th at closing out passing downs. Northern Illinois projects no clear way in against Arizona. Arizona is also 30th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 135th.
HowARIZattacksNIU
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
ARIZ#22 of 138NIU#129 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
ARIZ#30 of 138NIU#135 of 138 - 3
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
ARIZ#25 of 138NIU#125 of 138
The two teams
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is in year 1 under Rob Harley. The way in is 138th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 137th at surviving second and twelve.
Northern Illinois has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#138projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#137projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#135projected
Arizona
Arizona throws it: Brent Brennan's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 14th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−4.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arizona has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#14projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#16projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#20projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1608, NIU Elo 1266 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -31.6 (98% to win) — 2.9 points clear of NIU's market line of -34.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NIU138th75thARIZARIZ57th87thNIUThrough the air
NIU124th69thARIZARIZ41st58thNIUOn the ground
NIU136th17thARIZARIZ84th120thNIUStaying on the field
NIU119th90thARIZARIZ33rd133rdNIUTaking care of it
NIU104th109thARIZARIZ104th46thNIU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NIU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| -24.5 (#136) | CORE overall | +5.6 (#47) |
| -15 / +10 | offense / defense | +6 / -0 |
| -0.50 | points / drive | 1.89 |
| 2.62 | allowed / drive | 3.11 |
| 71% | three-and-outs | 22% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Northern Illinois vs. Arizona?
Gridpex's model favors Arizona with a 98% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Northern Illinois vs. Arizona?
The model projects Arizona by 31.6.
What time is Northern Illinois vs. Arizona and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 10:30 PM ET, at Arizona Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →