Fresno State vs. Utah State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Fresno State gets at Utah State: 70th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 130th at generating havoc. Where Utah State gets at Fresno State: 31st at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 68th at closing out passing downs.
How
FRESattacks
USU
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected · 1 game in
FRES12.7%#70 of 138USU9.9%#130 of 138
HowUSUattacksFRES
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · 21% this season, 2 games
USU42%#31 of 138FRES45%#68 of 138
The two teams
Fresno State
Fresno State is in year 2 under Matt Entz. The strengths are defensive, led by 31st at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 124th at running it, and they are 112th on first and second down.
Fresno State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 14% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.09#31 of 138
- Defenserunning it-0.29#34 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it-0.26#124 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down42%#112 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line27.3%#111 of 138
Utah State
Utah State throws it: Bronco Mendenhall's offenses have been pass-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 11th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 130th at generating havoc, and they are 122nd at staying out of the backfield.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −32.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Utah State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.00#11 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.35#29 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve42%#31 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss9.9%#130 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line27.5%#122 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down36%#109 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1381, FRES Elo 1591 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU -7 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FRES63rd41stUSUUSU126th116thFRESThrough the air
FRES85th66thUSUUSU77th127thFRESOn the ground
FRES115th50thUSUUSU113th77thFRESStaying on the field
FRES104th65thUSUUSU21st83rdFRESTaking care of it
FRES47th129thUSUUSU137th46thFRES
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFresno State leads 19–14–1 · 35% have been one-possession games
| FRES | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.0 (#80) | CORE overall | +1.1 (#64) |
| -2 / +1 | offense / defense | -3 / -4 |
| 2.16 | points / drive | 1.27 |
| 2.00 | allowed / drive | 1.46 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 45% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Fresno State vs. Utah State?
Gridpex's model favors Utah State with a 67% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Fresno State vs. Utah State?
The model projects Utah State by 7.0.
What time is Fresno State vs. Utah State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 7, 9:30 PM ET, at Maverik Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →