Western Illinois vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WESTTeam statsWIS
- Q4 5:14WISChris Brooks Jr. 33 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Gavin Lahm PAT failed)9–36
- Q3 5:39WISDarrion Dupree 28 Yd Run (Gavin Lahm Kick)9–30
- Q3 10:24WESTRonan Culkin 34 Yd Field Goal 9–23
- Q2 2:30WISGavin Lahm 51 Yd Field Goal 6–23
- Q2 4:59WESTRonan Culkin 27 Yd Field Goal 6–20
- Q2 12:48WISGavin Lahm 49 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q1 1:52WESTRonan Culkin 27 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 7:54WISCarson Van Dinter 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Gavin Lahm Kick)0–17
- Q1 10:15WISGavin Lahm 30 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 14:47WISAbu Sama III 72 Yd Run (Gavin Lahm Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = WEST ahead, below = WIS ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassKennedy McGill 13/22, 139 YDS
- RushKennedy McGill 18 CAR, 88 YDS
- RecJacob Kania 2 REC, 58 YDS
- PassColton Joseph 12/22, 173 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAbu Sama III 8 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyrell Henry 4 REC, 91 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Illinois vs. Wisconsin?
Western Illinois 9, Wisconsin 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WIS) was correct.
| WEST | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 302 | Total yards | 406 |
| 148 | Passing yards | 173 |
| 154 | Rushing yards | 233 |
| 15 | First downs | 16 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 15/24 | Comp/Att | 12/22 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 7.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 34:57 | Possession | 25:03 |
- Q4 5:14WISChris Brooks Jr. 33 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Gavin Lahm PAT failed)9–36
- Q3 5:39WISDarrion Dupree 28 Yd Run (Gavin Lahm Kick)9–30
- Q3 10:24WESTRonan Culkin 34 Yd Field Goal 9–23
- Q2 2:30WISGavin Lahm 51 Yd Field Goal 6–23
- Q2 4:59WESTRonan Culkin 27 Yd Field Goal 6–20
- Q2 12:48WISGavin Lahm 49 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q1 1:52WESTRonan Culkin 27 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 7:54WISCarson Van Dinter 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Gavin Lahm Kick)0–17
- Q1 10:15WISGavin Lahm 30 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 14:47WISAbu Sama III 72 Yd Run (Gavin Lahm Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects WIS -28.8 (95% to win) — 14.2 points clear of WEST's market line of -43. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →