Purdue vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Purdue gets at UCLA: 75th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 129th at closing out passing downs. Where UCLA gets at Purdue: 40th at running it, against a unit 101st at defending the run. Purdue is also 83rd at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 134th.
How
PURattacks
UCLA
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
PUR#75 of 138UCLA#129 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
PUR#83 of 138UCLA#134 of 138 - 3
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
PUR#82 of 138UCLA#127 of 138
HowUCLAattacksPUR
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
UCLA#40 of 138PUR#101 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
UCLA#67 of 138PUR#117 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
UCLA#86 of 138PUR#132 of 138
The two teams
Purdue
Purdue is in year 2 under Barry Odom, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 132nd on early downs defensively, and they are 125th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −40.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Purdue has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#132projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#125projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#120projected
UCLA
UCLA is in year 1 under Bob Chesney. The strengths are defensive, led by 5th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 134th at shutting down the ground game, and they are 131st on early downs defensively.
UCLA has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#5projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#134projected
- Defensefirst and second down#131projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#129projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1438, PUR Elo 1321 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -8.5 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
PUR64th62ndUCLAUCLA10th108thPURThrough the air
PUR15th124thUCLAUCLA103rd91stPUROn the ground
PUR76th77thUCLAUCLA17th81stPURStaying on the field
PUR32nd124thUCLAUCLA24th83rdPURTaking care of it
PUR1st30thUCLAUCLA31st88thPUR
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| PUR | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#78) | CORE overall | +12.9 (#29) |
| -1 / +1 | offense / defense | +9 / -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Purdue vs. UCLA?
Gridpex's model favors UCLA with a 70% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Purdue vs. UCLA?
The model projects UCLA by 8.5.
What time is Purdue vs. UCLA and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM ET, at Rose Bowl.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →