New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where Middle Tennessee gets at New Mexico State: 43rd in the push up front, against a unit 117th at holding the line of scrimmage. New Mexico State projects no clear way in against Middle Tennessee. Middle Tennessee is also 78th on first and second down, against a unit 119th.
How
MTSUattacks
NMSU
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected · 2 games in
MTSU4.11#43 of 138NMSU2.97#117 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · 20% this season, 2 games
MTSU52%#78 of 138NMSU47%#119 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · 20% this season, 2 games
MTSU45%#90 of 138NMSU45%#130 of 138
The two teams
New Mexico State
New Mexico State runs it: Tony Sanchez's offenses have been run-leaning across 7 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 26th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 132nd in the push up front, and they are 131st at keeping a clean pocket.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −32.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
New Mexico State has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 31% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.39#26 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensethe push the line gets3.20#132 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss15.9%#131 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.16#130 of 138
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is in year 3 under Derek Mason, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 130th at defending the pass, and they are 127th on early downs defensively.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Middle Tennessee has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 21% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it+0.30#130 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down50%#127 of 138
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss14.2%#117 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MTSU Elo 1277, NMSU Elo 1261 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU -5.5 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NMSU62nd89thMTSUMTSU53rd90thNMSUThrough the air
NMSU39th41stMTSUMTSU75th103rdNMSUOn the ground
NMSU99th90thMTSUMTSU81st71stNMSUStaying on the field
NMSU23rd50thMTSUMTSU118th103rdNMSUTaking care of it
NMSU104th76thMTSUMTSU21st22ndNMSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NMSU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.9 (#121) | CORE overall | -9.7 (#108) |
| -7 / +8 | offense / defense | -6 / +4 |
| 1.55 | points / drive | 1.82 |
| 3.38 | allowed / drive | 1.27 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee?
Gridpex's model favors Middle Tennessee with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee?
The model projects Middle Tennessee by 5.5.
What time is New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ET, at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →