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Taylen Green
Taylen Green

#10Taylen Green

QB·Boise State·2025202420227.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Taylen Green is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Boise State. Taylen's 2022 season ranks in the 83th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 337 plays — a above-average rate for the QB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.46
    Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.51
    Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Taylen Green's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Passing
166/272 Comp/Att2023 Pass yards14 Pass TD6 INT61.0% Comp %
Rushing
581 Rush yards10 Rush TD80 Carries7.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers

  • Efficiency83
  • Volume100
  • Dual-Threat100
  • Consistency82
  • Clutch100
Player type
Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)83th %ile · above avg
Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg
Career trajectory:↓ Declining
Key findings
  • ▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (83th percentile).
  • ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
  • ▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.26 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 0.90 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs San Diego State (SP+ -4).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗
Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.900−0.90Wk 1 vs Oregon State: +0.38 EPA/play1Wk 5 vs San Diego State: +0.90 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Fresno State: +0.30 EPA/play6Wk 8 vs Air Force: +0.87 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Colorado State: +0.88 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs BYU: +0.69 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Nevada: +0.67 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Wyoming: +0.06 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Utah State: +0.84 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Fresno State: -0.06 EPA/play14Wk 1 vs North Texas: +0.54 EPA/play1
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTQBRRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
1@Oregon StateL17-3414.319/281550174.210220.38
5vsSan Diego StateW35-13-4.45/10480176.010520.90
6vsFresno StateW40-203.310/181272132.52200.30
8@Air ForceW19-143.916/242070163.71600.87
9vsColorado StateW49-10-22.224/303052090.81310.88
10vsBYUL28-31-1.417/232202070.91400.69
11@NevadaW41-3-22.411/222181081.32210.67
12@WyomingW20-17-10.820/342111058.04710.06
13vsUtah StateW42-23-13.314/232204094.19110.84
14vsFresno StateL16-283.317/3817512—300-0.06
1vsNorth TexasW35-32-1.513/2213710—11920.54

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
46.6%
Passing plays
91.7%
Rushing plays
17.4%
Standard downs
39.1%
Passing downs
64.7%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.29
Passing downs
0.74
Pass / Rush EPA
0.44 / 0.65

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
+1.130−0.2920242025
EPA per play · 2022 — 2025 · 36 games
SeasonTeamLine valueTotal EPA
2022Boise State
7.9
207.9
2024Arkansas
6.1
215.4
2025Arkansas
8.1
183.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.