#1Tai Lavatai

QB·Navy·2023

Tai Lavatai is a Volume Passer for Navy. Tai's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 160 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tai Lavatai's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

56/101 Comp/Att701 Pass yards5 Pass TD2 INT55.4% Comp %

Rushing

245 Rush yards2 Rush TD75 Carries3.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat39
Consistency64
Clutch38

Player type

Volume Passer

High-rep offense that leans on this QB's arm — value comes through cumulative production across a high number of plays.

High play countFranchise-volume role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency64th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.48 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Charlotte (SP+ -21).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
0	vsNotre Dame	L3-42	20.1	3/6	43	0	0	23.9	23	0	—
2	vsWagner	W24-0	—	8/13	161	1	0	39.0	65	0	0.24
3	@Memphis	L24-28	3.5	10/19	133	1	0	44.5	30	0	-0.24
5	vsSouth Florida	L30-44	-6.6	1/5	7	0	0	10.7	21	2	-0.11
6	vsNorth Texas	W27-24	-6.7	4/8	75	1	0	72.0	28	0	0.53
7	@Charlotte	W14-0	-21.4	1/1	7	0	0	41.2	-4	0	0.56
8	vsAir Force	L6-17	5.9	13/23	96	1	2	14.1	8	0	0.32
15	vsArmy	L11-17	-4.0	16/26	179	1	0	—	74	0	0.36

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

34.9%

Passing plays

69.1%

Rushing plays

19.7%

Standard downs

32.1%

Passing downs

41.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.19
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / 0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).