#11Shane Morris

QB·Central Michigan·20176.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Shane Morris is a Clutch Passer for Central Michigan. Shane's 2017 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 501 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shane Morris's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

249/446 Comp/Att3237 Pass yards27 Pass TD17 INT55.8% Comp %

Rushing

93 Rush yards3 Rush TD88 Carries1.1 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts43 Punt yards43.0 Yards/punt43 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency25
Volume100
Dual-Threat35
Consistency64
Clutch80

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency64th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.22 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.74 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Kansas (SP+ -15).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsRhode Island	W30-27	—	25/49	226	1	1	49.0	32	0	-0.00
2	@Kansas	W45-27	-14.8	28/37	467	5	0	93.8	32	0	0.74
3	@Syracuse	L17-41	4.0	23/46	277	2	2	26.0	-1	0	-0.02
4	vsMiami (OH)	L14-31	-2.2	15/33	195	1	2	31.9	33	1	0.04
5	@Boston College	L8-28	4.6	21/42	171	0	3	6.5	-19	0	-0.22
6	@Ohio	W26-23	3.3	25/35	249	2	1	48.3	7	0	0.17
7	vsToledo	L10-30	6.6	17/37	182	1	2	8.1	23	0	0.05
8	@Ball State	W56-9	-19.7	16/21	199	4	0	85.4	2	0	0.56
10	@Western Michigan	W35-28	-2.4	12/30	243	2	0	66.1	27	2	0.48
11	vsEastern Michigan	W42-30	-5.3	11/18	155	3	0	63.6	-22	0	0.29
12	@Kent State	W42-23	-20.2	14/22	297	2	1	82.5	50	0	0.45
13	vsNorthern Illinois	W31-24	-1.4	19/37	247	3	1	31.4	-37	0	0.10
1	vsWyoming	L14-37	-2.5	23/39	329	1	4	16.7	-34	0	0.15

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.1%

Passing plays

95.1%

Rushing plays

15.3%

Standard downs

48.7%

Passing downs

73.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.29
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.19 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.