#5Shane Carden

QB·East Carolina·2014 20137.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Shane Carden is a 2-year Clutch Passer for East Carolina. Shane's 2014 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 704 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shane Carden's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

392/617 Comp/Att4736 Pass yards30 Pass TD10 INT63.5% Comp %

Rushing

76 Rush yards6 Rush TD96 Carries0.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency10
Volume100
Dual-Threat27
Consistency80
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.23 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.71 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs SMU (SP+ -21).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Casey Thompson	Nebraska	2021	666	0.528	12.6	351.4
Drake Maye	North Carolina	2022	707	0.523	13.0	369.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorth Carolina Central	W52-7	—	26/37	283	3	0	84.3	-1	0	0.52
2	@South Carolina	L23-33	17.4	32/46	321	1	2	60.1	21	0	0.30
3	@Virginia Tech	W28-21	7.8	23/47	427	3	0	52.3	13	1	0.18
4	vsNorth Carolina	W70-41	0.0	30/48	438	4	1	69.0	-14	2	0.52
6	vsSMU	W45-24	-21.2	31/41	410	4	0	90.8	47	0	0.71
7	@South Florida	W28-17	-11.8	24/33	250	1	1	82.6	7	0	0.31
9	vsUConn	W31-21	-14.1	38/64	445	2	1	60.6	32	0	0.30
10	@Temple	L10-20	-4.7	24/41	217	0	0	33.3	-4	0	-0.11
12	@Cincinnati	L46-54	6.9	35/61	425	2	0	71.9	-34	1	0.13
13	vsTulane	W34-6	-15.0	31/44	358	1	0	69.8	12	1	0.32
14	@Tulsa	W49-32	-15.8	28/41	338	4	1	71.1	9	1	0.39
15	vsUCF	L30-32	5.7	36/48	397	3	2	64.6	2	0	0.37
1	vsFlorida	L20-28	17.3	34/66	427	2	2	31.0	-14	0	0.09

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

66.0%

Passing plays

97.1%

Rushing plays

16.3%

Standard downs

63.6%

Passing downs

71.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.49
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.31 / 0.04

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	East Carolina	6.7	0.360	—	157.3
2014	East Carolina	7.3	0.377	+0.02	265.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.