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Samari Collier
Samari Collier

#1Samari Collier

QB·Coastal Carolina·2025

Samari Collier is a Dual-Threat QB for Coastal Carolina. Samari's 2025 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 142 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.46
    Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.51
    Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Samari Collier's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing
38/78 Comp/Att489 Pass yards7 Pass TD2 INT48.7% Comp %
Rushing
429 Rush yards7 Rush TD70 Carries6.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

  • Efficiency3
  • Volume76
  • Dual-Threat91
  • Consistency17
  • Clutch22
Player type
Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg
Game-to-game consistency17th %ile · below avg
Key findings
  • ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
  • ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.31 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 0.36 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Marshall (SP+ -5).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗
Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.600−0.60Wk 2 vs Charleston Southern: +0.30 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs East Carolina: -0.60 EPA/play3Wk 6 vs Old Dominion: -0.04 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs UL Monroe: +0.15 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs App State: +0.32 EPA/play8Wk 10 vs Marshall: +0.36 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Georgia State: +0.23 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Georgia Southern: +0.13 EPA/play12
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTQBRRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
2vsCharleston SouthernW13-0——————100.30
3vsEast CarolinaL0-388.0—————00-0.60
6@Old DominionL7-475.9—————10-0.04
7vsUL MonroeW23-8-21.65/15371057.48610.15
8@App StateW45-37-11.412/191181175.27420.32
10vsMarshallW44-27-4.58/201962135.07520.36
11vsGeorgia StateW40-27-24.511/181203091.412310.23
12@Georgia SouthernL40-45-9.42/6180066.36910.13

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
26.6%
Passing plays
37.4%
Rushing plays
19.9%
Standard downs
22.0%
Passing downs
36.0%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.31
Passing downs
0.21
Pass / Rush EPA
0.20 / 0.35

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.