#13Riley Leonard

QB·Notre Dame·2024 20228.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Riley Leonard is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Notre Dame. Riley's 2024 season ranks in the 53th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 572 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Riley Leonard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

269/403 Comp/Att2861 Pass yards21 Pass TD8 INT66.7% Comp %

Rushing

906 Rush yards17 Rush TD184 Carries4.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency53
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency84
Clutch88

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)53th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.71 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Stanford (SP+ -8).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Casey Thompson	Nebraska	2021	666	0.528	12.6	351.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Texas A&M	W23-13	17.0	18/30	158	0	0	66.7	63	0	0.20
2	vsNorthern Illinois	L14-16	-3.5	20/32	163	0	2	25.8	16	1	0.13
3	@Purdue	W66-7	-16.2	11/16	112	0	0	93.8	100	3	0.61
4	vsMiami (OH)	W28-3	1.3	16/25	154	1	0	83.4	143	2	0.41
5	vsLouisville	W31-24	13.6	17/23	163	2	0	74.1	52	1	0.20
7	vsStanford	W49-7	-8.2	16/22	229	3	0	94.5	31	1	0.71
8	vsGeorgia Tech	W31-13	1.9	20/29	203	0	1	71.5	51	2	0.26
9	vsNavy	W51-14	3.5	13/21	178	2	0	90.0	83	1	0.61
11	vsFlorida State	W52-3	-3.2	14/27	215	1	0	87.5	70	2	0.43
12	vsVirginia	W35-14	-5.1	22/33	214	3	1	50.0	32	0	0.10
13	vsArmy	W49-14	9.2	10/13	148	2	0	93.7	30	0	0.48
14	@USC	W49-35	11.9	17/22	155	2	1	84.0	50	1	0.33
20	vsPenn State	W27-24	24.6	15/23	223	1	2	80.3	35	1	—
20	vsGeorgia	W23-10	24.3	15/24	90	1	0	70.9	80	0	—
20	vsIndiana	W27-17	20.1	23/32	201	1	1	67.1	30	1	—
20	vsOhio State	L23-34	31.2	22/31	255	2	0	88.1	40	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.9%

Passing plays

90.0%

Rushing plays

31.0%

Standard downs

54.0%

Passing downs

67.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.52
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.29 / 0.51

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 — 2024 · 29 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2022	Duke	6.5	0.429	—	222.1
2024	Notre Dame	8.2	0.468	+0.04	296.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.