#5Phil Jurkovec

QB·Boston College·20207.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Phil Jurkovec is a Dual-Threat QB for Boston College. Phil's 2020 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 394 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Phil Jurkovec's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

205/336 Comp/Att2558 Pass yards17 Pass TD5 INT61.0% Comp %

Rushing

150 Rush yards3 Rush TD77 Carries1.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency40
Volume100
Dual-Threat69
Consistency82
Clutch84

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Duke (SP+ -4).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
3	@Duke	W26-6	-4.2	17/23	300	2	1	84.1	7	0	0.96
4	vsTexas State	W24-21	-13.4	26/38	210	1	1	—	37	2	0.31
5	vsNorth Carolina	L22-26	18.0	37/56	313	2	0	—	0	0	0.19
6	vsPittsburgh	W31-30	6.0	19/35	358	3	0	—	-42	1	0.48
7	@Virginia Tech	L14-40	13.7	28/51	345	2	2	—	13	0	0.23
8	vsGeorgia Tech	W48-27	-1.0	13/21	145	2	0	—	94	0	0.68
9	@Clemson	L28-34	26.1	12/24	204	2	0	—	-8	0	0.32
10	@Syracuse	W16-13	-9.8	20/29	208	1	0	—	-5	0	0.20
11	vsNotre Dame	L31-45	21.0	18/40	272	2	1	—	34	0	0.28
13	vsLouisville	W34-27	6.5	15/19	203	0	0	—	20	0	0.29

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

60.0%

Passing plays

96.2%

Rushing plays

17.4%

Standard downs

49.8%

Passing downs

82.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.27
Passing downs: 0.49
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 10 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.