#5Otto Tia

TE·Utah State·2024

Otto Tia is a Versatile TE for Utah State. Otto's 2024 season produced 32.7 total EPA across 42 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Otto Tia's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving

44 Receptions434 Rec yards7 Rec TD9.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume16
Explosiveness19
Consistency78
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile TE

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.36 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.61 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Colorado State (SP+ -6).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ty Thompson	Tulane	2024	48	0.420	0.7	20.2
Seth Green	Minnesota	2018	83	0.390	0.0	32.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsRobert Morris	W36-14	—	2	22	11.0	0	13	1.25
3	vsUtah	L21-38	7.7	5	78	15.6	0	39	1.26
4	@Temple	L29-45	-20.3	2	16	8.0	0	8	0.97
6	@Boise State	L30-62	10.1	2	11	5.5	1	6	1.28
7	vsUNLV	L34-50	9.3	4	26	6.5	0	10	0.05
8	vsNew Mexico	L45-50	-14.8	4	29	7.3	1	13	0.35
9	@Wyoming	W27-25	-13.6	6	76	12.7	1	36	0.74
11	@Washington State	L28-49	1.3	5	16	3.2	0	7	0.03
12	vsHawai'i	W55-10	-10.9	6	68	11.3	1	41	0.63
13	vsSan Diego State	W41-20	-15.4	2	11	5.5	0	10	-0.02
14	@Colorado State	L37-42	-5.7	6	81	13.5	3	51	1.61

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

5.7%

Passing plays

10.9%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

5.3%

Passing downs

6.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.66
Passing downs: 1.01
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.78 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).