#17Nick Starkel

QB·San José State·20209.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Nick Starkel is a Clutch Passer for San José State. Nick's 2020 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 264 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nick Starkel's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

163/254 Comp/Att2174 Pass yards17 Pass TD7 INT64.2% Comp %

Rushing

-40 Rush yards0 Rush TD13 Carries-3.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency73
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency79
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)73th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.23 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.69 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs New Mexico (SP+ -15).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
8	vsAir Force	W17-6	-5.6	22/29	226	2	1	—	—	0.47
9	@New Mexico	W38-21	-15.0	34/47	467	5	0	-5	0	0.69
10	@San Diego State	W28-17	5.3	2/3	13	0	0	—	—	0.26
11	vsUNLV	W34-17	-19.7	17/28	274	2	1	-1	0	0.48
14	vsHawai'i	W35-24	-7.1	11/23	167	2	1	1	0	0.30
15	vsNevada	W30-20	1.9	20/30	306	2	1	-11	0	0.48
16	vsBoise State	W34-20	6.7	32/52	453	3	0	-16	0	0.41
1	vsBall State	L13-34	-6.7	25/42	268	1	3	-8	0	-0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.1%

Passing plays

88.0%

Rushing plays

3.5%

Standard downs

43.6%

Passing downs

69.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.75
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / -0.52

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 8 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.