#7Malik Willis

QB·Liberty·2021 20206.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Malik Willis is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Liberty. Malik's 2020 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 383 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Malik Willis's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

169/264 Comp/Att2252 Pass yards20 Pass TD6 INT64.0% Comp %

Rushing

944 Rush yards14 Rush TD141 Carries6.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency38
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency83
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.14 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.15 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Western Carolina.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
3	@Western Kentucky	W30-24	-3.2	13/21	133	0	0	168	3	0.41
4	vsFlorida International	W36-34	-10.7	24/30	285	2	0	85	0	0.38
6	vsUL Monroe	W40-7	-18.4	11/29	177	0	1	87	1	0.14
7	@Syracuse	W38-21	-9.8	16/20	182	1	0	58	1	0.50
8	vsSouthern Miss	W56-35	-7.9	24/31	345	6	0	97	1	0.77
10	@Virginia Tech	W38-35	13.7	19/29	209	3	0	108	1	0.49
11	vsWestern Carolina	W58-14	—	14/19	306	3	0	97	2	1.15
12	@NC State	L14-15	0.0	13/32	172	2	3	44	0	0.18
13	vsMassachusetts	W45-0	-31.3	16/24	223	3	0	63	1	0.66
1	vsCoastal Carolina	W37-34	6.6	19/29	220	0	2	137	4	0.42

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.8%

Passing plays

93.6%

Rushing plays

29.4%

Standard downs

49.5%

Passing downs

71.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.36
Passing downs: 0.68
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.66

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Liberty	6.6	0.460	—	187.7
2021	Liberty	5.3	0.439	-0.02	219.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.