#3Logan Thomas

QB·Virginia Tech·20131.7 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Logan Thomas is a Clutch Passer for Virginia Tech. Logan's 2013 season ranks in the 18th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 474 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Logan Thomas's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

227/402 Comp/Att2907 Pass yards16 Pass TD13 INT56.5% Comp %

Rushing

344 Rush yards4 Rush TD162 Carries2.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency18
Volume100
Dual-Threat15
Consistency69
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)18th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.66 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Miami (SP+ 17).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAlabama	L10-35	34.1	5/26	59	0	1	2.1	2	0	-0.25
2	vsWestern Carolina	W45-3	—	17/31	200	1	2	60.1	—	—	0.08
3	@East Carolina	W15-10	7.5	25/43	258	2	1	52.2	10	0	0.65
4	vsMarshall	W29-21	8.3	18/34	181	1	2	49.2	58	2	0.05
5	@Georgia Tech	W17-10	11.4	19/25	221	1	0	72.5	58	1	0.32
6	vsNorth Carolina	W27-17	13.7	19/28	293	3	0	81.3	2	0	0.47
7	vsPittsburgh	W19-9	9.4	19/34	239	1	0	57.5	27	0	0.26
9	vsDuke	L10-13	5.0	21/38	214	0	4	29.6	101	1	0.04
10	@Boston College	L27-34	7.1	24/41	391	2	2	32.5	38	0	0.35
11	@Miami	W42-24	16.9	25/31	366	2	0	86.0	42	0	0.66
12	vsMaryland	L24-27	10.8	19/31	210	2	0	29.8	-17	0	0.23
14	@Virginia	W16-6	-5.2	13/29	229	1	1	19.4	-26	0	0.07
1	vsUCLA	L12-42	20.0	3/11	46	0	0	53.9	49	0	0.18

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.4%

Passing plays

87.2%

Rushing plays

25.5%

Standard downs

47.8%

Passing downs

67.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.10
Passing downs: 0.44
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / -0.03

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.