#5Keyjuan Brown

RB·Louisville·2025

Keyjuan Brown is a Explosive Back for Louisville. Keyjuan's 2025 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 104 plays — a elite rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Keyjuan Brown's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

704 Rush yards6 Rush TD96 Carries7.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

12 Receptions118 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.8 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns65 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency98
Volume47
Explosiveness86
Consistency46
Receiving45

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)98th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency46th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.32 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.83 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Bowling Green (SP+ -13).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsEastern Kentucky	W51-17	—	6	25	4.2	1	2	12	0	0.28
2	vsJames Madison	W28-14	12.3	4	1	0.3	0	—	—	—	-0.18
4	vsBowling Green	W40-17	-12.6	12	84	7.0	2	2	35	0	0.83
6	vsVirginia	L27-30	11.1	3	16	5.3	0	1	0	0	0.08
8	@Miami	W24-21	20.7	5	6	1.2	0	1	12	0	-0.57
9	vsBoston College	W38-24	-8.5	10	95	9.5	1	1	38	0	0.72
10	@Virginia Tech	W28-16	-10.1	12	94	7.8	2	1	2	0	0.02
11	vsCalifornia	L26-29	-3.2	14	136	9.7	0	1	5	0	0.55
12	vsClemson	L19-20	9.5	15	135	9.0	0	2	14	0	0.37
20	vsToledo	W27-22	6.0	15	112	7.5	0	1	0	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

16.4%

Passing plays

4.1%

Rushing plays

31.8%

Standard downs

19.4%

Passing downs

8.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.32
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.38 / 0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).