#9Ken Seals

QB·Vanderbilt·2023

Ken Seals is a Dual-Threat QB for Vanderbilt. Ken's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 191 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ken Seals's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

106/179 Comp/Att1218 Pass yards11 Pass TD4 INT59.2% Comp %

Rushing

39 Rush yards2 Rush TD39 Carries1.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume98
Dual-Threat100
Consistency61
Clutch70

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency61th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.64 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.08 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Alabama A&M.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAlabama A&M	W47-13	—	2/2	52	1	0	100.0	—	—	2.08
3	@UNLV	L37-40	1.4	2/2	41	0	0	90.8	2	0	0.99
4	vsKentucky	L28-45	10.5	4/7	42	1	0	72.8	—	—	0.55
5	vsMissouri	L21-38	19.3	20/31	259	2	1	49.0	-1	1	0.32
6	@Florida	L14-38	6.8	19/34	276	2	0	53.0	6	0	0.06
7	vsGeorgia	L20-37	31.2	19/29	201	2	1	71.0	-7	0	0.44
9	@Ole Miss	L7-33	18.4	4/8	22	0	1	12.7	-3	0	-0.01
10	vsAuburn	L15-31	7.6	16/29	160	1	1	19.8	20	0	0.03
11	@South Carolina	L6-47	4.3	13/28	104	1	0	19.9	12	0	-0.15
13	@Tennessee	L24-48	16.2	7/9	61	1	0	91.4	10	1	0.51

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

34.4%

Passing plays

55.9%

Rushing plays

9.5%

Standard downs

30.8%

Passing downs

40.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.27
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.15 / 0.46

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).