#9JoJo Natson

WR·Utah State·20141.0 pts line value1st Round

JoJo Natson is a Slot Specialist WR for Utah State. JoJo's 2014 season ranks in the 86th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 123 plays — a above-average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So JoJo Natson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

498 Rush yards3 Rush TD50 Carries10.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

51 Receptions504 Rec yards2 Rec TD9.9 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns1 KR yards0 KR TD25 Punt returns292 PR yards2 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs WR peers

Efficiency86
Volume42
Explosiveness19
Consistency63
Pass-Down93

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)86th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency63th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (86th percentile).
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.31 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.89 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs San José State (SP+ -12).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2020	128	0.310	1.0	39.7
Zach Abey	Navy	2018	126	0.370	2.1	46.6
Shane Tucker	Middle Tennessee	2014	97	0.320	1.6	31.0
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Jerrod Heard	Texas	2015	116	0.290	1.6	33.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Tennessee	L7-38	12.2	3	18	6.0	0	16	0.79
2	vsIdaho State	W40-20	—	6	59	9.8	0	24	0.16
3	vsWake Forest	W36-24	-7.8	6	78	13.0	1	44	0.37
4	@Arkansas State	L14-21	-0.3	5	17	3.4	0	7	-0.23
6	@BYU	W35-20	10.2	5	34	6.8	0	15	0.57
7	vsAir Force	W34-16	-1.4	2	39	19.5	0	39	-0.31
8	@Colorado State	L13-16	4.5	6	28	4.7	0	9	-0.06
9	vsUNLV	W34-20	-17.6	6	124	20.7	1	71	0.49
11	@Wyoming	W20-3	-14.0	3	2	0.7	0	4	0.56
12	vsNew Mexico	W28-21	-15.0	1	9	9.0	0	9	0.74
13	vsSan José State	W41-7	-11.5	3	29	9.7	0	14	0.89
14	@Boise State	L19-50	11.6	3	20	6.7	0	15	-0.29
1	vsUTEP	W21-6	-12.0	2	47	23.5	0	46	0.81

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.7%

Passing plays

18.7%

Rushing plays

11.5%

Standard downs

11.6%

Passing downs

20.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.43
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.34

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.