#81John Copenhaver

TE·North Carolina·2024

John Copenhaver is a Slot Specialist TE for North Carolina. John's 2024 season produced 31.7 total EPA across 40 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So John Copenhaver's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving

40 Receptions414 Rec yards4 Rec TD10.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume17
Explosiveness22
Consistency84
Pass-Down100

Player type

Slot Specialist TE

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.71 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.57 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs James Madison (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ty Thompson	Tulane	2024	48	0.420	0.7	20.2
Seth Green	Minnesota	2018	83	0.390	0.0	32.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
2	vsCharlotte	W38-20	-15.3	2	9	4.5	0	8	—
3	vsNorth Carolina Central	W45-10	—	6	60	10.0	1	23	0.98
4	vsJames Madison	L50-70	7.5	3	62	20.7	1	35	1.57
5	@Duke	L20-21	5.6	1	15	15.0	0	15	1.28
6	vsPittsburgh	L24-34	4.9	4	32	8.0	1	11	1.23
7	vsGeorgia Tech	L34-41	1.9	2	15	7.5	0	12	1.31
9	@Virginia	W41-14	-5.1	4	24	6.0	0	9	0.19
10	@Florida State	W35-11	-3.2	4	30	7.5	0	16	0.12
12	vsWake Forest	W31-24	-5.7	3	33	11.0	0	18	1.29
13	@Boston College	L21-41	1.2	4	64	16.0	0	25	0.91
14	vsNC State	L30-35	3.9	3	26	8.7	0	19	0.30
20	vsUConn	L14-27	1.5	4	44	11.0	1	23	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.0%

Passing plays

11.9%

Rushing plays

0.5%

Standard downs

3.9%

Passing downs

10.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.60
Passing downs: 0.93
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.76 / 1.42

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).