#8Jarrett Stidham

QB·Auburn·2018 20175.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jarrett Stidham is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Auburn. Jarrett's 2017 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 455 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jarrett Stidham's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

246/370 Comp/Att3158 Pass yards18 Pass TD6 INT66.5% Comp %

Rushing

153 Rush yards4 Rush TD103 Carries1.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency33
Volume100
Dual-Threat41
Consistency72
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency72th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.18 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.70 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Mississippi State (SP+ 16).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsGeorgia Southern	W41-7	-15.8	14/24	185	2	1	58.3	17	1	0.43
2	@Clemson	L6-14	26.4	13/24	79	0	0	9.2	-42	0	-0.34
3	vsMercer	W24-10	—	32/37	364	0	1	89.9	23	0	0.51
4	@Missouri	W51-14	11.1	13/17	218	1	0	97.9	35	0	0.63
5	vsMississippi State	W49-10	16.0	13/16	264	2	0	96.2	-12	0	0.70
6	vsOle Miss	W44-23	11.6	14/21	235	2	0	96.5	-6	0	0.65
7	@LSU	L23-27	21.1	9/26	165	1	0	21.6	11	0	0.22
8	@Arkansas	W52-20	2.1	19/28	218	0	1	89.0	49	1	0.30
10	@Texas A&M	W42-27	9.4	20/27	268	3	0	83.9	27	0	0.56
11	vsGeorgia	W40-17	26.7	16/23	214	3	0	—	3	1	0.22
12	vsUL Monroe	W42-14	-12.9	18/24	235	2	1	60.6	-3	0	0.12
13	vsAlabama	W26-14	33.5	21/28	237	0	0	64.8	51	1	0.38
14	vsGeorgia	L7-28	26.7	16/32	145	1	0	42.0	25	0	0.05
1	vsUCF	L27-34	14.1	28/43	331	1	2	32.0	-25	0	-0.06

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

45.2%

Passing plays

97.5%

Rushing plays

11.7%

Standard downs

36.3%

Passing downs

68.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.10
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Auburn	5.9	0.439	—	190.7
2018	Auburn	7.2	0.475	+0.04	213.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.