#7Jarrett Guest

QB·Coastal Carolina·2023

Jarrett Guest is a Dual-Threat QB for Coastal Carolina. Jarrett's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 62 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jarrett Guest's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

44/61 Comp/Att696 Pass yards7 Pass TD2 INT72.1% Comp %

Rushing

56 Rush yards1 Rush TD11 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency100
Volume61
Dual-Threat94
Consistency80
Clutch84

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 3.36 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs UCLA (SP+ 10).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@UCLA	L13-27	9.7	1/1	18	0	0	99.5	—	—	3.36
3	vsDuquesne	W66-7	—	2/3	104	1	0	96.8	4	0	1.63
8	@Arkansas State	W27-17	-6.3	1/1	6	0	0	7.8	6	1	0.71
9	vsMarshall	W34-6	-9.0	14/20	289	3	1	98.3	36	0	1.50
12	@Army	L21-28	-4.0	26/36	279	3	1	52.5	10	0	0.39

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.2%

Passing plays

36.3%

Rushing plays

5.9%

Standard downs

20.2%

Passing downs

23.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.71
Passing downs: 0.93
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.85 / 0.37

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).