#11Jake Garcia

QB·East Carolina·2024

Jake Garcia is a Clutch Passer for East Carolina. Jake's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 201 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jake Garcia's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

109/181 Comp/Att1426 Pass yards8 Pass TD12 INT60.2% Comp %

Rushing

46 Rush yards2 Rush TD40 Carries1.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency74
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.11 from the first to second half of the season.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorfolk State	W42-3	—	23/36	308	4	3	35.2	39	0	0.18
2	@Old Dominion	W20-14	-6.0	25/38	283	0	4	29.8	-9	0	0.06
3	vsApp State	L19-21	-8.1	18/28	226	1	1	17.5	-7	0	-0.04
4	@Liberty	L24-35	0.2	20/36	204	0	1	54.8	28	1	0.12
5	vsUTSA	W30-20	2.2	17/35	294	2	2	33.9	-11	1	0.24
6	@Charlotte	L24-55	-15.3	6/8	111	1	1	76.2	6	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.7%

Passing plays

98.4%

Rushing plays

17.6%

Standard downs

54.3%

Passing downs

68.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.07
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.16 / -0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).