2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jai'Den Thomas's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2026 Production
Air yards
Where the ball goes, and how much of the gain is the throw rather than the run after it.
The ball travels 0.9 yards in the air on an average target — 8.0 yards shorter than the median. Another 6.3 comes after the catch.
Where he is targeted
targets · completion rate · yardsDepth and direction come from CFBD’s passing detail, which is backfilled after the games: this covers weeks 1–2 only. Spikes, throwaways and intentional grounding are excluded before any average.
Performance Analysis · 2026 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency0
- Volume71
- Explosiveness46
- Consistency50
- Receiving98
Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
NIL Market Tier· 2026
On3 valuation ↗Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.09
- Passing downs
- -0.25
- Pass / Rush EPA
- -0.13 / 0.03
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).