#1Isaiah Williams

WR·Illinois·20201.2 pts line value1st Round

Isaiah Williams is a Workhorse Receiver WR for Illinois. Isaiah's 2020 season ranks in the 83th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 110 plays — a above-average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Isaiah Williams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

26/63 Comp/Att393 Pass yards4 Pass TD2 INT41.3% Comp %

Rushing

389 Rush yards1 Rush TD63 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs WR peers

Efficiency83
Volume91
Explosiveness33
Consistency73
Pass-Down93

Player type

Workhorse Receiver WR

The primary target in the offense — used across all situations and down-types at an elite volume.

Top target shareAll-down utilityOffense runs through this player

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)83th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (83th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.19 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.49 EPA/play in Wk 15 vs Northwestern (SP+ 9).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Shane Tucker	Middle Tennessee	2014	97	0.320	1.6	31.0
Zach Abey	Navy	2018	126	0.370	2.1	46.6
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2020	128	0.310	1.0	39.7
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Jafar Armstrong	Notre Dame	2018	79	0.320	1.0	25.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · EPA per play, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	EPA/play	Pass	Rush
8	@Wisconsin	L7-45	26.5	-0.18	-0.26	0.05
11	@Rutgers	W23-20	-10.5	0.36	0.11	0.52
12	@Nebraska	W41-23	7.7	0.24	—	0.24
14	vsIowa	L21-35	16.3	0.24	0.17	0.41
15	@Northwestern	L10-28	9.0	0.49	0.71	0.24
16	@Penn State	L21-56	13.9	0.25	0.10	0.52

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.9%

Passing plays

43.3%

Rushing plays

24.6%

Standard downs

26.1%

Passing downs

41.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.19 / 0.49

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 6 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.