Skip to content
Gavin Garcia
Gavin Garcia

#5Gavin Garcia

RB·Kent State·2025

Gavin Garcia is a Committee Back for Kent State. Gavin's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 136 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.52
    Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.41
    Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Gavin Garcia's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing
647 Rush yards3 Rush TD146 Carries4.4 Yards/carry
Receiving
4 Receptions43 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.8 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

  • Efficiency0
  • Volume62
  • Explosiveness28
  • Consistency0
  • Receiving19
Player type
Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg
Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg
Key findings
  • ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
  • ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.28 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 0.39 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Northern Illinois (SP+ -17).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗
Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.410−0.41Wk 1 vs Merrimack: -0.26 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Texas Tech: -0.10 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Buffalo: -0.07 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Florida State: -0.17 EPA/play4Wk 6 vs Oklahoma: -0.41 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Massachusetts: +0.27 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Toledo: -0.21 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Bowling Green: +0.07 EPA/play9Wk 11 vs Ball State: +0.05 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Akron: +0.36 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Central Michigan: +0.26 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Northern Illinois: +0.39 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+CarRush YdsAvgRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDEPA/play
1vsMerrimackW21-17—15493.30———-0.26
2@Texas TechL14-6227.612252.101380-0.10
3vsBuffaloL28-31-7.518613.40140-0.07
4@Florida StateL10-667.214402.90———-0.17
6@OklahomaL0-4418.3581.60———-0.41
7vsMassachusettsW42-6-36.611716.501400.27
8@ToledoL10-456.07142.00———-0.21
9vsBowling GreenW24-21-12.66538.81———0.07
11@Ball StateL13-17-23.012594.90———0.05
12@AkronW42-35-13.97395.61———0.36
13vsCentral MichiganL16-28-8.815775.101-300.26
14@Northern IllinoisW35-31-16.7241516.31———0.39

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
21.8%
Passing plays
2.3%
Rushing plays
38.8%
Standard downs
27.3%
Passing downs
12.0%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.02
Passing downs
0.39
Pass / Rush EPA
0.66 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.