#33Elijah Gilliam

RB·Fresno State·2025

Elijah Gilliam is a Explosive Back for Fresno State. Elijah's 2025 season produced 6.2 total EPA across 34 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Elijah Gilliam's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

234 Rush yards5 Rush TD43 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

7 Receptions53 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency25
Volume19
Explosiveness48
Consistency60
Receiving67

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency60th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.75 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Colorado State (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
0	@Kansas	L7-31	4.1	2	3	1.5	1	1	3	0	—
1	vsGeorgia Southern	W42-14	-9.4	3	33	11.0	0	1	0	0	0.34
2	@Oregon State	W36-27	-15.9	3	12	4.0	0	—	—	—	-0.26
3	vsSouthern	W56-7	—	9	53	5.9	1	2	24	0	0.58
7	@Colorado State	L21-49	-15.6	1	9	9.0	0	1	6	0	0.75
9	vsSan Diego State	L0-23	6.7	—	—	—	—	1	14	0	0.74
10	@Boise State	W30-7	3.1	3	5	1.7	1	—	—	—	0.60
12	vsWyoming	W24-3	-11.3	3	8	2.7	0	1	6	0	0.15
13	vsUtah State	L17-28	-3.1	1	0	0.0	0	—	—	—	-0.57
14	@San José State	W41-14	-14.3	9	92	10.2	2	—	—	—	0.65
20	vsMiami (OH)	W18-3	-3.4	9	19	2.1	0	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.8%

Passing plays

2.5%

Rushing plays

10.6%

Standard downs

8.3%

Passing downs

3.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: -0.21
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.07 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).