#10Donerio Davenport

RB·Texas State·2023

Donerio Davenport is a Explosive Back for Texas State. Donerio's 2023 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 84 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Donerio Davenport's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

461 Rush yards2 Rush TD91 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

11 Receptions102 Rec yards2 Rec TD9.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency20
Volume32
Explosiveness42
Consistency37
Receiving44

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency37th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.41 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Georgia Southern (SP+ -5).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Baylor	W42-31	-8.3	2	-6	-3.0	0	1	27	1	-0.05
2	@UTSA	L13-20	5.4	5	10	2.0	0	1	0	0	-0.36
3	vsJackson State	W77-34	—	8	40	5.0	1	1	8	0	0.56
4	vsNevada	W35-24	-22.0	2	3	1.5	0	1	4	0	-0.33
5	@Southern Miss	W50-36	-14.4	11	73	6.6	0	—	—	—	0.02
6	@Louisiana	L30-34	0.4	8	9	1.1	0	—	—	—	-0.07
7	vsUL Monroe	W21-20	-21.6	15	94	6.3	0	2	10	0	0.30
9	vsTroy	L13-31	9.8	4	9	2.3	0	1	13	0	0.44
10	vsGeorgia Southern	W45-24	-5.2	11	75	6.8	1	2	26	0	0.79
11	@Coastal Carolina	L23-31	-1.2	5	43	8.6	0	1	4	0	-0.13
12	@Arkansas State	L31-77	-6.3	14	76	5.4	0	—	—	—	0.34
13	vsSouth Alabama	W52-44	5.1	6	35	5.8	0	1	10	1	0.51

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

11.2%

Passing plays

2.7%

Rushing plays

19.1%

Standard downs

11.8%

Passing downs

10.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.70
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.87 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).