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Devin Roche
Devin Roche

#3Devin Roche

RB·Old Dominion·2025

Devin Roche is a Committee Back for Old Dominion. Devin's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 110 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.52
    Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.41
    Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Devin Roche's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing
634 Rush yards4 Rush TD111 Carries5.7 Yards/carry
Receiving
5 Receptions31 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.2 Yards/rec
Returns
19 Punt returns265 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

  • Efficiency0
  • Volume43
  • Explosiveness54
  • Consistency0
  • Receiving24
Player type
Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg
Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg
Key findings
  • ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
  • ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.58 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 0.36 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Georgia Southern (SP+ -9).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗
Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.080−2.08Wk 3 vs Virginia Tech: +0.10 EPA/play3Wk 5 vs Liberty: -0.03 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Coastal Carolina: +0.08 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Marshall: -2.08 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs James Madison: +0.08 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs App State: +0.03 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs UL Monroe: +0.03 EPA/play10Wk 12 vs Troy: +0.10 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Georgia Southern: +0.36 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Georgia State: +0.34 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+CarRush YdsAvgRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDEPA/play
3@Virginia TechW45-26-10.14256.31———0.10
5vsLibertyW21-7-9.07324.60———-0.03
6vsCoastal CarolinaW47-7-15.13165.30———0.08
7@MarshallL24-48-4.5210.50———-2.08
8@James MadisonL27-6312.37344.901500.08
9vsApp StateW24-21-11.413574.40———0.03
10@UL MonroeW31-6-21.612363.0011400.03
12vsTroyW33-0-4.8161459.10———0.10
13@Georgia SouthernW45-10-9.47517.311100.36
14vsGeorgia StateW27-10-24.5211376.52———0.34
20vsSouth FloridaW24-1011.6191005.302110—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
14.9%
Passing plays
2.0%
Rushing plays
23.1%
Standard downs
16.5%
Passing downs
10.9%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.08
Passing downs
0.20
Pass / Rush EPA
0.46 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.