#14DeShone Kizer

QB·Notre Dame·2016 20156.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

DeShone Kizer is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Notre Dame. DeShone's 2016 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 471 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So DeShone Kizer's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

212/361 Comp/Att2925 Pass yards26 Pass TD9 INT58.7% Comp %

Rushing

472 Rush yards8 Rush TD129 Carries3.7 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts37 Punt yards37.0 Yards/punt37 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency13
Volume100
Dual-Threat86
Consistency68
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.08 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.59 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Texas (SP+ 11).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Texas	L47-50	10.6	15/24	215	5	0	89.8	77	1	0.59
2	vsNevada	W39-10	-13.0	15/18	156	2	1	75.1	35	1	0.45
3	vsMichigan State	L28-36	7.4	20/37	344	2	1	67.3	14	2	0.40
4	vsDuke	L35-38	-2.8	22/37	381	2	1	84.9	60	1	0.49
5	vsSyracuse	W50-33	-2.7	23/35	471	3	1	76.9	1	1	0.44
6	@NC State	L3-10	9.4	9/26	54	0	1	3.3	15	0	-0.46
7	vsStanford	L10-17	16.4	14/26	154	0	2	39.2	83	1	-0.06
9	vsMiami	W30-27	18.6	25/38	263	2	0	67.3	31	0	0.33
10	vsNavy	L27-28	6.8	19/27	223	3	0	90.2	52	0	0.53
11	vsArmy	W44-6	-9.9	17/28	209	3	1	95.5	72	0	0.38
12	vsVirginia Tech	L31-34	15.2	16/33	235	2	0	51.7	69	0	0.30
13	@USC	L27-45	23.6	17/32	220	2	1	18.8	-37	1	-0.06

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.5%

Passing plays

93.2%

Rushing plays

25.7%

Standard downs

52.2%

Passing downs

71.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Notre Dame	11.5	0.542	—	271.0
2016	Notre Dame	6.9	0.410	-0.13	214.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.