#1Dequan Finn

QB·Toledo·2023 20227.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Dequan Finn is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Toledo. Dequan's 2023 season ranks in the 53th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 418 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dequan Finn's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

201/317 Comp/Att2651 Pass yards22 Pass TD9 INT63.4% Comp %

Rushing

563 Rush yards7 Rush TD123 Carries4.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency53
Volume100
Dual-Threat84
Consistency81
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)53th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.23 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.15 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Eastern Michigan (SP+ -12).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Illinois	L28-30	-2.5	20/36	230	2	1	68.1	75	1	0.35
2	vsTexas Southern	W71-3	—	16/17	232	3	0	56.6	7	0	0.95
3	vsSan José State	W21-17	-3.4	13/23	92	1	1	48.0	62	1	0.10
4	vsWestern Michigan	W49-31	-15.9	8/14	119	2	2	34.6	36	0	0.77
5	vsNorthern Illinois	W35-33	-7.5	16/20	281	2	0	95.2	61	1	0.92
6	@Massachusetts	W41-24	-17.5	15/23	139	2	1	94.9	172	1	0.83
7	@Ball State	W13-6	-14.9	15/27	166	0	0	54.3	25	0	0.32
8	@Miami (OH)	W21-17	2.8	16/28	160	2	0	64.5	34	1	0.32
10	vsBuffalo	W31-13	-15.2	12/19	176	1	1	34.2	17	0	0.41
11	vsEastern Michigan	W49-23	-12.3	23/27	407	3	1	99.5	10	0	1.15
12	@Bowling Green	W32-31	-7.8	20/30	279	2	1	58.1	7	1	0.33
13	@Central Michigan	W32-17	-19.1	9/17	97	1	0	22.0	24	0	0.11
14	vsMiami (OH)	L14-23	2.8	18/36	273	1	1	46.6	33	1	0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.9%

Passing plays

90.1%

Rushing plays

24.6%

Standard downs

43.6%

Passing downs

67.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.31
Passing downs: 0.65
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.51 / 0.32

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 — 2023 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2022	Toledo	6.7	0.488	—	205.8
2023	Toledo	7.9	0.549	+0.06	234.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.