#18Danny O'Neil

QB·San Diego State·2024

Danny O'Neil is a Clutch Passer for San Diego State. Danny's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 367 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Danny O'Neil's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

209/330 Comp/Att2181 Pass yards12 Pass TD6 INT63.3% Comp %

Rushing

89 Rush yards1 Rush TD74 Carries1.2 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts20 Punt yards20.0 Yards/punt20 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat39
Consistency50
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency50th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.12 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.42 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Central Michigan (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsEast Texas A&M	W45-14	—	22/33	214	2	0	35.8	18	0	0.30
2	vsOregon State	L0-21	-6.7	11/24	107	0	0	8.5	1	0	-0.29
5	@Central Michigan	L21-22	-15.8	14/23	246	2	0	44.7	7	0	0.42
6	vsHawai'i	W27-24	-10.9	24/33	224	1	0	61.7	-10	0	0.35
7	@Wyoming	W27-24	-13.6	16/27	254	1	1	31.4	4	0	0.29
9	vsWashington State	L26-29	1.3	22/34	195	0	1	51.6	-3	0	-0.00
10	@Boise State	L24-56	10.1	14/30	155	2	2	10.1	-21	0	-0.28
11	vsNew Mexico	L16-21	-14.8	26/41	195	1	0	34.8	21	0	0.16
12	@UNLV	L20-41	9.3	13/22	162	2	2	17.6	10	1	0.23
13	@Utah State	L20-41	-10.4	23/31	199	0	0	32.8	37	0	0.03
14	vsAir Force	L20-31	-11.7	24/32	230	1	0	38.6	25	0	0.34

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.7%

Passing plays

90.7%

Rushing plays

12.8%

Standard downs

46.2%

Passing downs

64.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.04
Passing downs: 0.33
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.13 / 0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).