#18Clayton Thorson

QB·Northwestern·2018 20165.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Clayton Thorson is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Northwestern. Clayton's 2016 season ranks in the 5th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 573 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Clayton Thorson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

280/478 Comp/Att3182 Pass yards22 Pass TD9 INT58.6% Comp %

Rushing

98 Rush yards5 Rush TD97 Carries1.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency5
Volume100
Dual-Threat87
Consistency81
Clutch86

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)5th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.49 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Purdue (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsWestern Michigan	L21-22	11.5	15/22	196	0	0	48.9	-8	0	0.30
2	vsIllinois State	L7-9	—	17/41	191	1	0	29.2	30	0	0.04
3	vsDuke	W24-13	-2.8	18/39	320	3	2	49.4	-24	0	0.10
4	vsNebraska	L13-24	10.3	24/37	249	1	2	58.0	43	1	0.19
5	@Iowa	W38-31	10.3	18/30	164	3	0	81.5	11	1	0.38
7	@Michigan State	W54-40	7.4	27/35	281	3	1	81.3	12	1	0.43
8	vsIndiana	W24-14	4.6	24/43	285	3	0	76.7	22	0	0.27
9	@Ohio State	L20-24	22.4	22/42	256	1	1	85.8	44	1	0.39
10	vsWisconsin	L7-21	16.1	28/52	277	1	0	33.3	-3	0	0.15
11	@Purdue	W45-17	-11.0	23/36	352	3	2	85.4	2	1	0.49
12	@Minnesota	L12-29	12.6	28/45	276	1	0	21.0	-26	0	-0.02
13	vsIllinois	W42-21	-6.7	13/20	121	1	0	37.7	-21	0	0.14
1	vsPittsburgh	W31-24	13.1	23/36	214	1	1	52.3	16	0	0.26

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.9%

Passing plays

98.9%

Rushing plays

12.6%

Standard downs

52.5%

Passing downs

68.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.21 / 0.34

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Northwestern	5.3	0.376	—	206.3
2018	Northwestern	2.8	0.331	-0.04	196.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.