#6CharMar Brown

RB·Miami·2025

CharMar Brown is a Explosive Back for Miami. CharMar's 2025 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 133 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So CharMar Brown's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

460 Rush yards7 Rush TD122 Carries3.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

20 Receptions138 Rec yards2 Rec TD6.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency25
Volume39
Explosiveness16
Consistency41
Receiving51

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency41th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.90 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Louisville (SP+ 12).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNotre Dame	W27-24	24.4	15	54	3.6	1	2	17	0	0.18
2	vsBethune-Cookman	W45-3	—	7	35	5.0	1	1	4	0	0.18
3	vsSouth Florida	W49-12	11.6	9	22	2.4	0	1	1	1	-0.04
4	vsFlorida	W26-7	3.5	18	80	4.4	2	4	53	0	0.52
6	@Florida State	W28-22	7.2	8	19	2.4	0	—	—	—	0.01
8	vsLouisville	L21-24	12.4	3	9	3.0	0	1	5	0	0.90
9	vsStanford	W42-7	-11.8	5	9	1.8	0	—	—	—	-0.38
10	@SMU	L20-26	13.4	9	37	4.1	0	—	—	—	0.11
11	vsSyracuse	W38-10	-13.1	8	40	5.0	0	5	23	0	0.07
12	vsNC State	W41-7	4.8	8	45	5.6	1	1	3	0	0.30
13	@Virginia Tech	W34-17	-10.1	2	9	4.5	0	—	—	—	0.02
14	@Pittsburgh	W38-7	8.4	8	16	2.0	0	1	9	1	-0.02
20	vsOle Miss	W31-27	24.0	14	54	3.9	1	2	7	0	—
20	vsOhio State	W24-14	30.1	5	26	5.2	1	1	5	0	—
20	vsIndiana	L21-27	32.4	3	5	1.7	0	1	11	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

13.8%

Passing plays

3.9%

Rushing plays

23.6%

Standard downs

16.1%

Passing downs

7.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.12
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.57 / 0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).