What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.47Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.09Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.45Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Casey Reynolds's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2024 Production
Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers
- Efficiency100
- Volume9
- Explosiveness100
- Consistency84
- Pass-Down0
Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.40 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 3.41 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Florida Atlantic (SP+ -13).
NIL Market Tier· 2024
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 2.03
- Passing downs
- 1.30
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 1.59 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).